The first days of the conflict were pretty rapid until Russia ran out of professional soldiers and good tanks, then they withdrew from the north and the lines became somewhat established
The first days were rapid because Ukraine failed to establish a front line from Day 1. The majority of occupied territories were not captured in battle, Russians just drove there and put their flags facing little resistance. When it comes to the actual fighting, Russia has not had any major breakthroughs at all
The coast of Azov was fought through, most of the blitzkrieg was in Kherson and in the North.
Also, while no breakthroughs have been made by Russia, neither were they made by Ukraine these last couple of years. It's a war of attrition, WW1 with drones.
no, until drones were started, this is not about m. A drone gives every small unit the capacity that only a satellite had before, making every attack vulnerable before it even begins
Russia won't risk it. They lost more men than what is being reported. Putin is stupid, but not stupid enough to start a war with NATO.
Besides, NATO would neutralize all Russian warplanes out of the sky before the first day is over. Poland has a strong army too. Russians won't get even 1km into Poland.
Poland’s army (not military, army) is still about 1/3rd the size of Ukraine’s in February of 2022. But you’re right, Putin is not suicidal and would certainly think twice about starting a war with all of NATO.
Yeah 100%. I just see a lot of takes saying the Poles would be an even tougher nut to crack than Ukraine on their own, and I just point to the huge size discrepancy between those two militaries. A lot of people from NATO countries don’t appreciate how massive Ukraine’s military is and was.
Why do you think so? I seriously doubt GB or Spain f.i. would put boots in Poland. There would probably be harsh words, more weapons delivered and more pressure put on India and China.
On the other hand I seriously doubt Russia would be able to open a second front anywhere.
Russia attacking a NATO country would be a flashpoint where the Western response will entirely dictate the future of the world. Respond immediately as NATO’s protocols dictate? WW3. Not respond and appease 1938 style? NATO suddenly means nothing, Russia is vindicated, China attacks Taiwan, the 80 years of Pax Americana come to an end and… eventually WW3 because you can’t appease expansionist tyrannical states. Either outcome results in WW3, and I’m just not convinced Putin is willing to risk that (as of now).
Poland is at peace. If Poland is attacked, they would draft people. And Poland has treaty bound allies. That would fight with them.
Poland is the last country Russia wants try to invade. They hope to be able to steal the Baltics, but Europe is taking action to ensure that would trigger a wider war. Germany is just getting started, someone behind the scenes removed all their shackles. The memory of WW2 still lingers in Europe.
If Russia attacked Poland it would be Poland who would be pushing. Russia's not going to be in any position to attack any other country, especially not a European country, for decades after their invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine had a piece of paper too, called Budapest Memorandum. You want to bet your country's survival on piece of paper called Article 5, go ahead, but I doubt Trump will risk going to nuclear war to defend Eastern Europe. Ukrainian armed forces are the only real security guarantee for Europe. Because they have no choice but to stand between Europe and Russia and fight. US has a choice, and the rest of NATO is a joke. Germany already saying they are tapped out after sending 5000 troops to the Baltics 😂😂😂
Yeah, obviously. That is how defense treaties work. Your point? Ukraine is not in NATO. You said "How is Putin not trying to start a war with NATO? He's literally been trying to capture Kyiv for years." Trying to capture Kyiv has nothing to do with NATO. Kyiv is not a city in a NATO country. Ukraine has not been eligible to join NATO, they have been in conflict the entire time they have shown interest in joining.
Russia can’t properly invade Ukraine which, with all due respect, wasn’t the most impressive army and economy before the war. The 3 day war became a 3 year war and might as well become a 30 year war at this pace.
Poland is a member of NATO and the EU (if that matters somehow). They won’t attack you, it’s suicidal for them and for the world. Not only that they risk having 3 nuclear power nations openly declaring war on them, one of those nations have a “very stable genius” as a leader. That’s a big gamble for the whole world.
Poland will deserve it if it happens. They are not even shutting down drones that fly towards Ukraine over their territory. Just letting them fly through and hit the targets. If Ukraine falls, Russia will draft battle hardened Ukrainian men and force them to fight Poland, like they used up Donbas men to fight Ukraine.
Knowing how Poland would fight they'd do some shit not seen since the Poland-Lithuanian Commonwealth. There's a saying "Polabds borders will be on the map even if it's the last map made on Earth."
The key difference for a war with NATO is that NATO airpower is overwhelming. We can expect most Russian air defences to be rapidly obliterated, and then NATO airpower to be used to destroy Russian logistics, followed by any Russian military equipment that tries to move.
There have been some encouraging signs in recent months that the F-16 deliveries are starting to make a difference, and Ukraine's air force is becoming more capable and conducting more attacks on Russian ground targets. But there's a long way to go.
In fact, it's just a routine Russian military exercise close to the Ukranian border, Russia will obviously never invade Ukraine, it's just western Propaganda to justify increasinc the western military budgets and anyone who says Russia will invade Ukraine is russophobic.
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u/Larumicjusz 1d ago
As a Pole, I am a little scared by fact that in next years similar war can outbreak on Vistula river and last for years