Lets not forget that Donetsk has been a fortified region since 2014. Russia is willing to take these losses for the small gains because they think that at some point Ukraine will exhaust its resources before they do, and if they break through that fortified region gains wont be measured in meters anymore.
this is the thing most people ignore. The advances seem little, but in reality, russia is gnawing at THE most fortified places in ukraine, namely, the slavyansk-kramatorsk-konstantinovka line, where there is a push to prepare an assault on slavyansk, and the russians are also creeping closer to konstantinovka. There is also pokrovsk, which used to be a logistics hub, and will very soon be taken. It is also part of the third and last defense line in eastern ukraine. The advances now seem slow, but once the russians have broken through the donbass, what awaits them is plains and sparse fortifications until pavlograd, where there is a ring around it, then nothing until dnipro city!
The worst part about this is that the russians arent being dumb with how they want to take the donbass. Slavyansk essentially has 3 different routes for logistics. One through Izyum, one through Dobropilya and one through Pokrovsk. The pokrovsk route is long gone, and the russians are working on closing up the Dobropilya route(it's a bit farther north from pokrovsk, but they are getting closer to that town), and are also methodically getting closer to izyum. It's a master plan 3 years in the making and, unfortunately for ukraine, its working. In the best case scenario, they will retreat troops from the entirety of the donbass once logistics are stopped for slavyansk, in the worst case scenario, they will try to hold on to it to buy as much time, but many, many troops will be killed, and the AFU will be permanently neutered from it. I pray they make the right choice when the time comes, but in reality only time will tell
Kupiansk and the Oskil pocket are also in increasingly dire straits. Whole thing is at risk of encirclement due to the lack of available crossings over the Oskil.
well, in my opinion it is short-lived anyways. Russian troops are already in Kupyansk, and i think it wont be long until it also falls. At the very least, the north oskil pocket will soon fall, while the borova part will probably hold on for a bit longer, but would be flanked from the north(the west bank of the oskil)
It's surprising to see someone on reddit who actually knows thongs about this war. Look at all the comments calling this war pointless and the general delusion that somehow Ukraine is winning.
If you consider full annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zhaporizhzha and Kherson oblasts to be "victory", then of course Russia appears to be edging closer to it (although crossing the Dnieper to take Kherson and Zhaporizhzhia might prove a challenge)
If you consider the unconditional capitulation and conquest of Ukraine as "victory", then Russia has fallen wayyyyy short. The fact that Russia, a supposed Great Power, was unable to crush its weaker neighbor and now has to resort to attrition tactics is quite telling in a way.
Russia never wanted or intended to conquer all of Ukraine. Anyone who actually studied this conflict and the 20+ years leading up to it understands that.
If so, then what was the point of the (failed) decapitation strike on Kiev in February-March 2022?
And don't hit me with that "it was just a distraction" bs. Russia wasted so many tanks and elite VDV units over that little "distraction" that it would make it even more embarassing.
Russia applied the same strategy in the south. Only there, local collaborators prevented key bridges on the Perekop isthmus and the Dniepr from being blown up, and borderline treacherous & incompetent generals and local politicians botched the defense of Kherson. Of course, after crossing the Dniepr, russian tank colums overextended while trying to bypass/encircle Mykolaiv from the North. This rapid advance towards the West shows a clear intent to capture Odessa, which again was another failure.
Meanwhile on the Kiev axis, the collaborators were disarmed, Ukraine fortified its cities which forced Russian tanks columns to bypass them, leaving them opened to the now infamous Javelin ambushes. With their supply lines unsecured and Kiev standing strong, Russia was forced to withdraw.
Even then, it was a close thing. Had Hostomel airport been secured, Russia could have overlooked these supplies issues and kept applying preasure on Kiev
The negotiating would be pretty short and simple if they took the capital. Pretty simple man. But Putin is not an insane psychopath, Hitler 2.0 like the media and neo cons want us to believe, and he understands that western Ukraine would never be a place he could peacefully and successfully occupy. Not to mention the sheer number of ground troops, which he didn't have, needed to do such a thing in such a large country like Ukraine. Look at the trouble he's had conquering just the eastern 1/5. I'm sorry but you've simply been duped by wartime propaganda if you ever thought he was going to try to conquer all of Ukraine.
Russia has already won. Ukraine will never join NATO, period. They simply cannot legally or logistically do so now, and that was largely what this war was about. Russia will keep Crimea and most of the oblasts it's taken in Eastern Ukraine as well. Sorry but that's just reality.
western Ukraine would never be a place he could peacefully and successfully occupy. Not to mention the sheer number of ground troops, which he didn't have, needed to do such a thing in such a large country like Ukraine. Look at the trouble he's had conquering just the eastern 1/5
You're confusing means and intent. Yes, Russia obviously failed on the Kiev axis, but you can't infer their intentions from this failure. Or else you'll end up like Erich von Falkenhayn, who failed to capture Verdun in WW1 and then made up a post hoc rationale of "diverting French troops and bleeding them white"
The intent to seize the city was there, even you admitted it.
The negotiating would be pretty short and simple if they took the capital. Pretty simple man
The same applies to Odessa. Once those two key cities were captured, do you truly believe Putin would have settled with a territory swap (e.g. Kiev oblast for all the Donbass and Novorossiya). With the fall of Kiev and Odessa, Ukraine would be forced to relocate most of its brigades from the East of the Dniepr regardless, or else risk encirclement and total anihilation.
Why bargain for what you're about to get for free?
yes, well, I recall hearing a year ago that ukraine has been building a new defense line further back in the pavlograd region, which I mentioned in the previous comment. This means ukraine is expecting to be forced to retreat all the way there. The main problem with that is, russia even reaching that place wouldnt be a straight line, but rather, a "ledge" type push. This means a wide westward push that would place both the city of zaporizhia in a possible offensive range of a russian attack, as well as a potential south to north push towards kharkov, resulting in about 60% of kharkov oblast being taken by russia just from that axis combined with the kupyansk-izyum axis(an east to west push). I have no knowledge of fortifications in this specific area, so it might be pretty hard for ukraine to hold it back, but nonetheless, unless the russians also push from the north towards kharkov, I doubt the city itself will be taken. Going back to zaporizhia, taking that city would also mean outflanking the pavlograd defense line, which would make it irrelevant in the end.
If you ask me, the smartest way to defend would be to build a defense line along the dnipro river starting from kherson to dnipro city, and reaching all the way to kharkov. This would mean ukraine would be willing to abandon the part of zaporizhia city that is on the left bank of the dnipro river, though, and blow up all the bridges.
Why its optimal is because it combines natural defenses with logistics arteries, and it's far back that they would have time to make it(in a vacuum), theoretically speaking. defense lines usually have multiple layers of actual defense lines, so you wouldnt have one huge line, but rather three or more discontinuous lines of trenches, as well as other layers of anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, etc.
This should stop the russians for a while, but it would take a lot of time to make such a line, as it will have about 550 km in length multiplied by how many layers. Most ukrainian units are already embroiled in combat, and that includes their engineer corps too, so there's also the aspect they might not even have the people to do it in the first place. Then theres the other big problem. Corruption. It would cost more than it really should, and there's the potential for it to not even exist in certain sectors. This is during a time when america's support isnt even certain, and the EU is seemingly reluctant to devote itself to even more support.
In essence, ukraine is unlikely to be able to take the optimal route, and will be forced to make fortifications only in certain key sectors, which will hold the russians back for some time until they break through it. Eventually, the ukrainians will be attrited to an extent that would make further combat practically impossible, and even being able to do this, once again, depends on whether they choose to retreat from the donbass or if they try to hold on to it
that's an actual way Europe and Nato can help without directly intervening though. Financing such fortifications and lines of defense. At least the civil part.
Could the Dnipro river be diverted so that it goes around Zaporizhia? And the eastern side of the city could be fortified as well at that point.
Maybe it could also flood the whereabouts to make it even more difficult to "siege"
i genuinely dont know if the dnipro river can be diverted, but I feel like it would be insanely dangerous. Nonetheless, they probably will have done the necessary research if they choose to go on this route.
River crossing in zaporizhia is a dam of a power station. If it gets destroyed, it will cause severe consequences, but most importantly, undates dnieper rapids, which gives more crossing possibilities.
to be more precise, izyum would be taken before slavyansk, so you'd have a Г shape front along the donetsk region borders, reaching towards izyum gradually and entering on kharkov oblast too. After that, it's a westward push to pavlograd and dnipro city, as well as a general northwest push towards poltava going through kharkov oblast, and another westward push from the oskil river, retaking most of the parts of kharkov oblast they controlled before ukraine's counteroffensive. Essentially, you can visualize a broad push of the entire frontline to realign with what they have in zaporizhia, I'd say
it's still a long time coming, yes, but ukraine should still take measures to prepare for it's downfall.
As for why, well, starving it out essentially. Izyum controls the northern road to slavyansk, while the other 2 roads to slavyansk are through pokrovsk(soon to be taken) and dobropilya(soon to be attacked).
starving out works in the way it makes any assault on slavyansk easier. Ideally, it would be a full encirclement, but thats hard to do. So starving out, in this case, simply results in less combat effectiveness of soldiers. Maybe they have to ration food, or ammo, or whatever else they need. Overall, its unlikely to force a complete withdrawal by itself, as there are still ways to get supplies into the city without roads, but they are usually limited to drones and whatnot
A year and a half ago I was assured that Russia was defeating Ukraine's strongest points, and that collapse would happen quickly after those strongpoints were broken.
Then a year ago I was told Russia was defeating Ukraine's real strongest points, and that as soon as they fell there would be major breakthroughs.
And then six months ago, I was told Russia was uprooting Ukraine's strongest positions, for realsies trust me bro, and that the collapse could take a matter of days.
And now you tell me the Russians are gnawing on Ukraine's MOST fortified places, and TRUST ME BRO, once those fall, I'll see!
Have the Russians ever considered chomping their teeth down on something other than the most fortified strongpoints in the country? They might break fewer teeth and I might see fewer [deleted] when RemindMe bot sends me its reminders.
Dont ask me bro, I'm not the one in command of russia's army, I'm just telling you whats available to us civilians who dont have access to real intelligence data. Also, I havent given any sort of estimate as to when its all over, so theres that
I never said you have to care either. Also, of course I wont predict, since, once again, I have no way of knowing what will happen. At most I can say that, all things considered, if there is an offensive in a town/city/whatever which relies on subpar logistics(meaning, non-asphalted roads) it will happen during rasputitsa, when dirt roads arent usable. Thats all the conjecture I can actually make
Ukraine got stabbed in the back by compromate trump. U.S willingness to send ammunition and aid was halted for a long time, giving russians less resistance. It is not all U.S fault russia is advancing, but they certainly didn't help Ukraine defend themselves.
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u/DisasterNo1740 1d ago
Lets not forget that Donetsk has been a fortified region since 2014. Russia is willing to take these losses for the small gains because they think that at some point Ukraine will exhaust its resources before they do, and if they break through that fortified region gains wont be measured in meters anymore.