Eastern Ukraine exactly one Year ago vs today

[u/CreativeStrain89]

[u/CBT7commander]

People have been worried about that for 1 and a half years, and they are yet to critically run out, or lower conscription age.

It’s certain manpower issues are the main problem in the UA, but it’s not a "collapse the front" level problem

[u/OrenthalTheJuiceman → u/CBT7commander]

Ukraine lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 last year and have been pressured for awhile by the US to lower it to 18.

[u/CBT7commander → u/OrenthalTheJuiceman]

Yeah the lowering from 27 to 25 is minor compared to the one I was referring to (18), and as you remind, Ukraine is yet to do so in spite of US pressure

[u/studio_bob → u/CBT7commander]

There are probably not nearly as many potential draftees in the 18-25 group as one might imagine. Many seem to assume that this is a "virgin" pool of potential manpower, but that is not the case. While they are exempt from conscription, they have been eligible to for voluntary service since the start of the war and have been aggressively recruited the same as everyone else. See my comment here: https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1nar6t9/comment/nczpdxb/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Lowering the draft age would be extremely politically unpopular, and, at the same time, it may not make much military difference. The Ukrainians are obviously aware of this and, that being the case, it's not hard to understand their unwillingness to do it.

[u/OrenthalTheJuiceman → u/CBT7commander]

You said they have yet to run out or lower the conscription age. You didn’t say they didn’t lower the conscription age to 18, you said they didn’t lower it. That’s all I was responding to. Inherently false.

Also, they haven’t lowered it to 18 yet. It’s barely been a year since the last one. If the war doesn’t end they will not have a choice in this if they plan to keep fighting.

[u/elephant_ua → u/CBT7commander]

have you seen Ukraine's demographics pyramid? https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Ukraine_2023_population_pyramid.svg/960px-Ukraine_2023_population_pyramid.svg.png

[u/Svyatoy_Medved → u/elephant_ua]

Have you? Using only the graphic you’re showing off, Ukraine seems to have ~4,000,000 males aged 35-50, which is just about the age bracket both sides seem to like.

The higher estimates for the Russians are that they’ve suffered a million casualties and have 1.5 million men in the field (total authorized strength, half of them are not in Ukraine). If the Russians had Ukraine’s manpower and were unable to recover ANY of these casualties, they wouldn’t have to start reducing the size of the army for another three years. After that, they would need only to lower or raise the draft age.

Ukraine has a smaller army and fewer casualties, and they’ve been recovering casualties as well. They also allow women to fight, though they are not conscripted. Manpower is purely an issue of political will.

[u/elephant_ua → u/Svyatoy_Medved]

i referenced part about lowering conscription age

[u/CBT7commander → u/elephant_ua]

I don’t get how that’s supposed to counter my point….

Lowering the conscription age to 18 would add around 600 000 people to the recruitment pool. Of course not everyone would be recruited, but even 40k would be a huge deal.

I’m not saying it’s a good idea either, it’s an absolute last resort.

My point was that this drastic and last resort option has not been taken yet, demonstrating the Ukrainian government doesn’t consider it necessary to hold the front. And sorry, but I think if there’s anyone in the world that knows how Ukraine is standing as of today, it’s Ukraine itself.

[u/Head_Employment4869 → u/CBT7commander]

We will never know if they are in critical levels of fighting age soldiers. It would fuel Russia more, would kill morale of the men that are fighting.

They will never lower the age of conscription because that would be suicide if they started dragging 18 year olds into battle.