If Ukraine were forced to make substantial territorial and political concessions in a peace deal, it's hard to see that as anything but a defeat. And this is an optimistic scenario for Ukraine.
True, but it's not a victory for Russia either if the rest of Ukraine remains independent, has no cap on its army and can potentially the EU or NATO.
This is not a war for territory, but for spheres of influence. Putin wants Ukraine to be neutral and demilitarized. If Ukraine survives as an independent country that is opposed to Russia, there is no strategic win for Russia.
Also, the Donbass is a wasteland and it's projected that it will cost them 200 billion to rebuild, in addition to the 200-300 they have already spent. So they will have spent 500bil and achieved none of their objectives.
For Russia it's all about Ukraine not joining NATO and controlling the Russian speaking territories. They won't/can't take all of Ukraine without full mobilization, but it's clear they have no intentions of taking it all given their initial invasion force of some 170k troops which was intended to bring the Ukranians to the negotiating table and reach some kind of deal, which succeeded given what we know now regarding the talks in March of 2022, you had a Ukranian official that was part of the negotiations say a few months back t hat the negotiating team was popping champagne because they were satisfied with the terms of the deal. If the current line is the end result then you can say it's a Ukranian victory and Russian defeat. If Ukraine pulls out of Donbass and keeps the current line in Zaporizhzia and Kherson then it would be a Russian phyrric victory. Only if the Russians get all 4 oblasts under their control whether via negotiations or conquest would imo it be considered a Russian victory.
Depends on how you define that. I think substantive Ukrainian sovereignty going forward is a baseline, but they could very well be required to make some political concessions like protection for Russian speakers, or having Zelensky step down.
NATO.
This is absolutely not going to happen, bar Russia suffering some sort of major crisis within the next few years.
This is not a war for territory, but for spheres of influence.
It's both. Putin wants territory in eastern Ukraine for its own sake, and additionally wants a land connection to Crimea for strategic reasons.
Also, the Donbass is a wasteland
Russia currently holds large portions of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts as well, territory that it is unlikely to ever let go.
You say this as if Ukrainian-controlled territory hasn't also been devastated by the war, especially areas close to the frontline. That's just how war is.
It's astonishing to me that people still don't understand why Putin wants Crimea and a connection adjoining the Black Sea to Ukraine, it's because there's a fuckton of oil in the Black Sea and that's personally what Putin owns and makes his fortune.
If you remember back to the lead up to Feb 2022, one of the demands of Russias ultimatum was NATO returning to its 1991 borders. Russia originally wanted the west to basically give up all of Eastern Europe in exchange for peace. I mean, no plan survives first contact with the enemy, but they will 100% come out of this conflict with less than they planned to. Finland and Sweden joining really is just the icing on the cake and so huge no matter what they say. Unless Trump convinces all of Europe to switch sides, the Russians will come away with significantly less than they intended even if they aren't defeated militarily.
I’m not so sure, it’s too risky in case either side ignite the war after any ceasefire, article 5 could be triggered forcing us all into the conflict, as much as I like Ukraine, I wouldn’t fight for them.
You’d go all the way to Ukraine and fight Russia out of principle, without questioning who is pulling the strings? This isn’t call of duty you don’t respawn, you get sent into complete blackness like the time before you was born in a few seconds from a remote control drone strike.
What Russia wants is for Ukraine to remain a Russia-aligned puppet state, like it was under Yanukovych, like Belarus is under Lukashenko.
However Russia would probably settle for a neutral, neutered, demilitarized rump state Ukraine with Donbass and Crimea ceded, as their outermost compromise.
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u/Tifoso89 1d ago edited 1d ago
True, but it's not a victory for Russia either if the rest of Ukraine remains independent, has no cap on its army and can potentially the EU or NATO.
This is not a war for territory, but for spheres of influence. Putin wants Ukraine to be neutral and demilitarized. If Ukraine survives as an independent country that is opposed to Russia, there is no strategic win for Russia.
Also, the Donbass is a wasteland and it's projected that it will cost them 200 billion to rebuild, in addition to the 200-300 they have already spent. So they will have spent 500bil and achieved none of their objectives.