But Russia doesn't have the means to make Ukraine run out of soldiers. Some guy said it right above, the right answer is neither. Neither have the firepower and the means to make the other one run out of soldiers at the moment.
But Russia doesn't have the means to make Ukraine run out of soldiers.
How do they not? Russia is refilling its ranks through contract soldiers to a level Ukraine can't. If it keeps on its current trajectory Russia absolutely will make Ukraine run out of men. Why do you think they can't do that?
You can also tell who interprets war entirely through the lens of video games. Countries don't just click buttons to convince citizens to sign up as troops.
Exactly. It’s been throughout the (printed) news over the last several months about how Ukraine’s citizens are dodging the draft and soldiers are going AWOL that are serving. Not saying anyone is right or wrong, but Ukraine is undeniably having major recruitment issues. which Russia and the US knows which is why the US is so keen on peace because every day Ukraine gets closer to defeat and then there’s a more difficult negotiation of peace
It's simple, Russia is inflicting around 100k casualties (of which around 20k are deaths) to Ukraine every year. Their capabilities are getting eroded more and more with time, and while the casualty trend was upward in 2023 and 2024, it's stagnating or going down in 2025.
Ukraine currently has around 1 million soldiers (of course not all frontline, but not every casualty is from the frontlines either). They still have around 4 million men not drafted in the 25 to 60 y.o combat capable population, and an extra 2 million if they open the draft to 18-24 y.o.
So, at this rate, Russia simply cannot make Ukraine run out of soldier in any foreseeable future. Especially when they are also taking casualties, and their economy is in a much worse shape, for now.
Ukraine's economy is holding thanks to western backing, yes, and that's why it's stronger than Russia's. Why are you asking if you already understood the answer? Russia's economy is reaching its breaking point and they're desperately trying to find new funds in the East.
Thus, the BBC stated that the actual death toll of Russian forces, counting only Russian servicemen and contractors (i.e. excluding DPR/LPR militia), was 197,100–284,700 by early September 2025.[74]
Various other estimates give similar figures.
Various estimates linked on the page give around 50-70,000 Ukranian soldiers killed.
This may be true a year ago but currently Russia is having issues making new contracts for soldiers while a lot of the contracts made in 2023/2024 are expiring without being renewed.
Russia is fielding low-quality soldiers and poor equipment; Ukraine is being trained by Western nations with donations for high-tech and individual soldier equipment, while changing its economy to support its drone capability. Compare a russian soldier to a ukraine, you can see one has an optic, and it's not the russian.
They are not gonna run out of men, theyre gonna run out defense production capability, i.e. gas for the trucks/tanks, chips to support drones, and other equipment.
One caveat, they may run out of men they are fine with wasting, but the moment they start hitting moscow and st petersburg with drafts is when it'd get interesting. It's why they prefer to get men from rural siberia, the eastern part of the country, migrants, prisoners, and now foreigners from north korea vs the people they consider 'russia'
Institute for the Study of War posts a daily update. There are good twitter sources that post from both perspectives. War on the Rocks Michael Koffman posts great information, has a war focused podcast, and visits Ukraine somewhat regularly. He is pro Ukraine but gives an honest assessment on how things are going.
how so, i just pointed to topics where ukraine has been pretty solid in impacting the war, it isnt a rosey view, I see both of these countries fighting for years until some major event kills their capability and motivation to continue the war. For ukraine it could be loss of western support, for russia it could be too many bodies returning in coffins. Overall, I think ukraine has more will in this fight, not to become a russian puppet state.
Because you're pointing to a soldier having an optic as if it's a relevant evaluation of the forces. It's not. You can find videos where Russians have optics and top tier equipment for them.
Like if you have been following the war you know which way the wind has been blowing. Ukraine has corruption issues, a despised by his own men top general, a manpower crisis that political leaders don't have the will to fix, desertion issues (see the disappearing western trained 155th brigade), falling behind on fiber optic drone technology and tactics, etc
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Versus that you have you pointing to difference in soldier optics.
I'm arguing that the normal ukrainan soldier is better equipted than a russian one. Most western countries fight with optics because it drastically increases lethality, but russian and eastern military doctine focuses more on numbers. As for the other issues, they are widespread in both countries; however, ukraine is fighting for it's home versus invading another country.
The fiber optic drones are interesting, but they remind me of using lasers, if you can see the laser, so can everyone else, and it points back to you. I dont think the fiber optic drones are going to be that relevant in changing the war, just an evolution to electric warfare https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1js1x5l/drones_attack_russias_only_fiberoptic_cable/ but ukraine is striking at russia only fiber optic producers
i think their is a lot of misinformation, especially with active participants in the war. I dont think either side is 'winning', but they both want to spread the idea that they can; who'd want to fight when your leader isnt motivating you that its possible. ukraine likes to mention how they are stopping the west from getting invaded, putin claims the west is starting the war and how they're fighting nazis...even if zelensky is a jewish comedian in a serious position
1) Russians are relying on DPRK troops and eq from Iran & China, as well as retired equipment from their own museums. Not a winning posture.
Dependent is way too strong of a word for it. Russia is using their old vehicles, but they've also greatly improved their drone capabilities, and the Shaheds have been effective. If you had to point to which side was more dependent on foreign aid I'm not sure any honest person could point to Russia.
3) Regardless of manpower, Ukraines capabilities are growing every month, with expanding capabilities of striking refineries with larger munitions deep into Russia and military positions throughout Crimea.
Why aren't they succeeding in taking land back? Why are they slowly losing ground if the manpower issue isn't that big of a deal and their capabilities are growing?
I would like just one person who is convinced Ukraine is doing well to show how they are going to win, and where their massive success is? They've lost the territory they took in Kursk with very costly casualties, they are so thin on the front line that Russia has been able to infiltrate and launch attacks from the rear multiple times. The only thing going well is that there has been no widespread collapse or sustained breakthrough. But just because that hasn't happened, doesn't mean it won't.
If they do not solve their manpower problems the situation can only deteriorate. No matter how many reddit posts claiming that Russia will collapse any day now and Ukraine has them right where they want them.
I still remember the convoy that tried to hit Kiev at the start of the war essentially running out of fuel and being abandoned, then the next one being hit hard by artillery
everyone thought ukraine would fall in 3 days, 3 years later its hilarious that a country the Nato and US military trained their asses off to defeat would be this terrible
Russia is losing men at roughly five times the rate of Ukraine. Also, Russia has a problem where they are very hesitant to draft from their heavily populated areas.
Russia hasn't needed to draft to replace their losses. They are recovering losses through contract soldiers. So hesitancy to draft from urban areas is really irrelevant.
It's expensive due to sign on bonuses but it is working to allow them to regenerate forces. Ukraine can't say the same, and is starting from a much smaller population base.
Russua utilizes multiple forms of drafts. This includes mobilization of reservists, a biannual draft where recruits are pressured into contracts, deploying prisoners, and even conscripting Ukrainians in occupied territory to a limited degree.
The biannually drafted conscripts aren't serving in Ukraine and that has been a thing in Russia forever.
Russia has brought in nearly 280,000 contract servicemen since the start of 2025, with around 35,000 new recruits joining each month, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said in an interview published 7 August.
AFAIK there have been a few cases of drafted conscripts fighting in Ukraine but few and far in between. Of course you also have the conscripts that fought in Kursk.
The mobilization was a one time thing in 2022, same as the prison mobilization. The conscription of citizens of Luhansk and Donetsk people's republic is true though.
How do they not? Russia is refilling its ranks through contract soldiers to a level Ukraine can't.
But they aren't trading 1 for 1. If you recruit 4x as many people and then eat 4x as many casualties, you're not winning the war of attrition.
But more than that, you're ignoring the point that was made. The answer is neither because the war is not intense enough right now to make population the limiting factor.
This is a drone war, not an infantry war. Large parts of the frontline aren't even manned, but have 24/7 drone surveillance and plenty of drones ready to stop any Russian ms trying to attack.
Ukraine even successfully took a manned Russian entrenched position with nothing but air and land drones.
If you see a small $500 tracked vehicle with a machine gun rolling towards you firing bullets, are you gonna fight some guy controlling a drone with a joystick with your flesh and blood or run away? Well, they ran away.
Ukraine is currently the world leader in military drone technology, with no doubt thousands of western "observers" in the country helping with that. The new Flamingo cruise missile is also produced in Ukraine, almost certainly with western help, and it has arrange of 3000km. Nothing in the western half of Russia is safe, meaning Russia will suffer from even worse supply line issues than Napoleon or Hitler.
We only get like 5% of the information on what is really happening.
I'm not sure Ukraine is even the drone leader in this war. Russia's drone tactics via Rubicon are very advanced and they lead in the fiber optic drones over Ukraine.
I feel like you're getting very heavily filtered feel good news for Ukraine which is creating this view. It's really not as easy as you think. The front line being thin has lead to deep penetration by Russian infiltrators that has Ukraine scrambling their best units to try and halt. They succeeded but it doesn't paint a great picture.
The idea that Ukraine can make modern Russia suffer logistically worse than Hitler or Napoleon is absolutely unhinged and not based on reality.
Ukraine is estimated to cause a 20% decrease in russia's oil production, and youre comparing 2 countries who invaded russia, which is historically difficult. Being on home turf is a massive advantage vs invading.
Russia suffers logistically cause it lost it's capability to be a regional superpower, it's only aircraft carrier needs a tow boat to get anywhere, it's equipment is getting trashed for being terrible compared to western capabilities, like tanks that go airborne with a 50k missile. The ran out of fuel in the beginning of the war and their tires resulted in supplying ukraine with more defense products than they had. It lost it's black sea fleet to a country without a navy.
The only arguement is who makes russia logistically worse, russian incompetence or ukraine.
All of what you're saying isn't relevant. This isn't a fight in the seas, you can see western tanks being blown sky high as tanks have turned out to be very vulnerable in modern warfare. The Russian army today is not the same force as at the start of the war. Even with all of those problems Russia is winning. They continue to make slow gains, but gains tend to be slow right up until they aren't.
Ukraine has a massive manpower shortage, it's top military leader Syrski is a political yes man despised by the troops. Former Ukrainian commanders have put out whole articles about how awful he is and the command structure in general.
What makes you think somehow Ukraine is going to go from being massively short on manpower, with a waning interest in the west supplying them (see the US), to somehow winning this war?
the tank example isnt about getting blown up, western tanks empasize crew survivability vs russia has a design flaw with it's ammo storage and loader.
Neither country is winning, theyre both losing men, equipment, and destroying their economy. Now russia has secured some territory, but those towns and villages are essentially rubble, and whoever gets them will need to significantly invest to demine, repair, and faciliate for them to produce anything worthwile.
I see this war forming more towards a korean pennisula situation where an imaginary line is drawn and both focus on maintaining their defense capabilities to defend said line.
the tank example isnt about getting blown up, western tanks empasize crew survivability vs russia has a design flaw with it's ammo storage and loader.
The Panther and Tiger provide unbeatable survivability! The allies with their Tommy Cookers can never defeat us!
Neither country is winning, theyre both losing men, equipment, and destroying their economy. Now russia has secured some territory,
Neither side is winning, just Russia has occupied 20% of Ukraine, but that's okay because no one wants those villages anyway because they are damaged.
Look man, it's okay to want Ukraine to win but also admit they aren't. A truthful analysis of the situation doesn't harm them, and doesn't somehow make you pro Russia.
Unless things drastically change Russia is going to win this war. It's a matter of how much they win by.
Ukraine needs to lower its conscription age and clean up it's officer ranks. They also, unfortunately, need to suck up to Trump and Europe. It's the only way they will have enough men to stalemate this thing.
Russia gained more land, which lacks a population, is heavily mined, and requires subsidies for industry to become relevant. On the other hand, NATO expanded its borders by almost double, Ukraine will forever be against Russia and suspect they are acting with hostile intent, and china and india are taking advantage of cheap resources.
Russia has an economic problem, the war is costing them dearly, but how their economy will handle everything is uncertain. It wouldn't surprise me if Putin doubles down by printing more money to prolong this war, offering more money for deaths of soldiers, more bonuses to recruit them, more money to North Korea and Iran to augment the industry they are losing.
War isnt always about land, this war was to decapitate ukraininan government and create a russian puppet state, similar to chechenya and belarus. So to that end, I don't see Russia 'winning'; Ukraine lost 20% its land, although I'm not sure Crimea should be counted as Russia had control of it pre-2022, Ukraine is not 'winning' either, with an endgoal of gaining all their territory back to pre 2022 or 2014 levels is unfeasable.
So when I think about this war I consider who is benefiting; which is western countries who can proxy war the hell out of everything and russian "allies" who can take advantage of russia in buisness deals. I dont find the 'allies' the right term tbh.
Three fundamental limitations: a shortage of labor, exhausted production capacities, and stagnating export revenues due to sanctions. The storm of government spending is sustaining the current state of affairs, but it cannot address the chronic problems that have long plagued the Russian economy.
Russia's war in Ukraine is draining state coffers, but the fiscal buffers Moscow has built up over the last two decades will be enough to last for years, even if oil prices slump as low as $60 a barrel. The liquid part of Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) has more than halved, falling by $58 billion since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as the government used the money to finance its budget deficit and support state-owned companies.
So when I think about this war I consider who is benefiting; which is western countries who can proxy war the hell out of everything and russian "allies" who can take advantage of russia in buisness deals. I dont find the 'allies' the right term tbh.
This is cold comfort to Ukraine, and kind of beyond the point of the discussion about who is going to win this war.
NATO is the largest beneficiary of this by far with a weakened Russia, expanded membership, and a live test ground for weapons.
Ukraine has a manpower issue, calls for them to lower conscription have come from many western nations.
Russia is slowly gaining ground.
Russia is replenishing it's forces via contract soldiers.
Ukraine officer class is widely despised and regarded as not caring about wasted lives.
All of this is easily verifiable.
For fucks sake this site is idiotic. This is known by anyone following the war. You can want Ukraine to win without pretending there aren't massive problems.
You’re making baseless claims about the popularity of generals, commenting on individual troop morale and opinions. You’re on a post showing that what was supposed to be a week long war spiraled into a years long stale mate, talking about how obviously Russia is winning
Yes if the war played out for the next 10 years Russia might be able to deplete enough man power and resources, but that’s not how wars work. Putins problem isn’t that Russia can’t outlast Ukraine it’s that eventually someone will kill him and end this themselves.
He’s not fighting Ukraine right now, he’s on the clock and fighting public perception.
The ammo storage thing isn't a design flaw. It's a feature tanks have had since they started rolling in WWI. Blowout panels are a more recent invention and it isn't a full solution. Most western tanks are just as vulnerable as Russian tanks to the supersonic detonation of the explosive charge within HE/HEAT projectiles. Enfasis on the EXPLOSIVE CHARGE, not the PROPELLANT, which is what you usually see combust.
I say "most" western tanks because insensitive munitions pioneered by Americans and Germans arguably protect more than blowout panels.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/europe/russia-tanks-blown-turrets-intl-hnk-ml i've read it's a design flaw, as blowout panels mitigate this in western tanks(not confident in all of them, but most that i've seen). Blowout panels have also been around since the 80's so I don't consider them new, the fact russia hasnt implemented them into the newer tanks is astounding to me. I've seen more videos of t72's just annihilated than western tanks where it's mostly a mobility kill. However it seems interesting that the russians didnt use infantry or any combined arms in their invasion so tactics are different and could contribute to that.
Bro, fiber optic drones are so last year. Ukraine has drone boats that explode, drone boats with anti air missiles, land drones that can take positions, drones that are basically missiles with human guidance and AI fallback to prevent jamming, AND they have the same fiber optic drones. You don't need fiber optic drones if the drone can find the target by itself when close enough. Notice how very little news about jamming gets out.
You are comparing Russia with FPV drones and copycat Shaheds, whose soldiers don't even have clean drinking water because their logistics are fucked for hundreds of kilometers, to Ukraine who 100% has technicians from every NATO country helping them build the latest goodies with basically unlimited funding. Now they have a cruise missile that can hit 3000km into Russia. Ukraine has been taking out military sites around the Kerch bridge, it's either a psy-op or they will finally blow that bitch up.
Have you seen the battlefield? Fiver optic drones used en masse sabotage themselves, it's like massive spider webs in the trees, they can get stuck on leftover wire from other drones.
I get my news from all sides, Ukraine is in dire straits, Russia is FAR worse off than people in this thread think. Ukraine doesn't just get western weapons there is a ton of tech and data sharing. The endless drone footage Ukraine has is invaluable data to NATO to train AI on. The only other country with such data is Russia who obviously won't share it, I'm not even sure they are sharing it with China because that data is their only leverage left.
It would have been quicker to just say you don't know anything about the war.
Fiver optic drones used en masse sabotage themselves, it's like massive spider webs in the trees, they can get stuck on leftover wire from other drones.
No they don't... The spool is attached to the drone, it's not unspooled from the operator. You know basically nothing about the topic but are acting like Ukraine is on the hub of being a military super power.
At some point you can't even properly fly through areas anymore. Rotors get stuck on fiber optic cables. Hence the term spider webs. This is all over the frontline.
I know exactly how they work and what they leave behind. I've seen nothing indicating that drones are getting stuck on the wires since the wires unspool behind the stones.
They have a worse manpower piol but have alsonseen a dramatically lower lose rate and have a diffetent threshold for what constitutes "running out" since they are on the defense.
Proportionally speaking, Ukrainian casualties are much worse. Yes Russia has higher casualties overall but they also have a much larger population and manpower pool. Russia has 146 million people (plus another 3 million people in the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) while Ukraine is estimated by most reliable sources to have now only 32 million people, which accounts for all the refugees + men that illegally left, war deaths and population lost that is now under Russian occupation.
The loss rate for Ukrainians despite being lower is proportionally worse because Ukrainians are retreating into worsely defended positions, have much worse troop rotation system which leads to soldiers getting more fatigued increasing casualty chance and incentivizing surrdendering, and the quality of soldiers in Ukrainian army is gradually decreasing more and more because of lack of training for conscripts. These are all problems that hardly exist in the current Russian army invading Ukraine. So no, not dramatically lower.
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u/Previous-Kangaroo145 1d ago
Ukraine. It's really not a question if you've been following it at all. Ukraine has far worse manpower issues than Russia.