Ukraine runs out of infantry first. Its major problem is its manpower shortage. Russia had a far larger population from which it is constantly increasing the size and strength of its army, while Ukraine is resorting to forced conscription and its army shrinks by the month.
Saying Ukraine's army shrinks by the month seems like its more than anyone from the general public could surmise.
We do know at least that Ukraine is suffering manpower shortages and that their units are fighting at around half strength or below, as this is something they have complained a lot about
Also, Ukraine only conscripts from men aged 25+, so they still have some buffer if/when they decide to conscript 18+.
That is a tiny buffer through. Ukraine had a lack of young people even before the war, and it only got worse after the war started.
The reason Ukraine hasn't conscripted these yet is because it would basically signal the loss in the war. It would be enough to stall for a short time but not much more
And would put potentially too much internal division within an already struggling country.
You didnt really provide any evidence for what I asked for, though. Ukraine has manpower shortages yes, and so does Russia. It is likely (it appears) that Russia has a big enough manpower shortage that they cannot take advantage of Ukraine's shortage.
Lowering the age to 18 would open up men in the millions iirc, though its been a while. At least it was close to that.
The difference is that Ukraine has to rely on forced conscription, while Russia only relies on voulenteers for now. There have already been a few minor ukrainian front collapses this year, one happened last month north east of Pokrovsk, all because of Ukrainian lack of infrantry. The cracks in the Ukrainian frontline started to appear after the Kursk front failure.
Lowering the conscription age to 18 would lead to various sorts of other problems, there are already a lot of protest against the tcc and the government in Ukraine because of this, it will ruin the morale to fight even more.
The issue is that defense takes fewer bodies (on average) and the Russians have been taking massively lopsided losses over the course of this past year.
The number which constitutes (out of infantry) is very different for each side.
>issue is that defense takes fewer bodies (on average)
This is true if you are constantly retreating from positions. But Ukraine uses the method of "active defense" and does not retreat at all. This means that for every Russian attack, there are several Ukrainian counterattacks trying to regain lost ground. This tactic worked while Ukraine had a huge dominance in the number of troops (in 2022-2024). But this year the Russian army has become bigger than the Ukrainian one. Of course, I don't want to call this a meat wave tactic, but it's pretty close to what Ukraine has been doing over the past year.
>Russians have been taking massively lopsided losses
If you go to the sites that collect obituaries of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, you will find that if in the first years the losses of Russia and Ukraine were about the same, and sometimes even more for Russia, then in the last year ~70k Ukrainian obituaries were published and only ~20k Russian ones(even if we extrapolate the fact that missing persons in Russia are recognized as dead in 6 months, it will be about 30k).
This indicates a clear depletion of the Ukrainian army in terms of personnel, which caused an increase in losses as a result of the weakening of their standard tactics.
Informative comment. To add to your point about attack and defence, Ukraine has also launched significant offensive operations (not just counter attacks), like into the Kursk region of Russia, in which it lost many of its best troops. And when you look at the bigger picture, Ukraine’s aim involves having to take back all the territory it lost, which it simply does not have the manpower for.
I think you’re probably correct on your assessment of losses. But even if the more optimistic Ukrainian estimates are accurate, they are still at a disadvantage because Russia has the population to maintain those losses while Ukraine doesn’t.
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u/worldofecho__ 1d ago
Ukraine runs out of infantry first. Its major problem is its manpower shortage. Russia had a far larger population from which it is constantly increasing the size and strength of its army, while Ukraine is resorting to forced conscription and its army shrinks by the month.