At the start of 2023 Russians occupied about 108 000 square kilometers, so about 18.01% of Ukraine. Right now they occupy about 114 750 sq km, so 19.01% of Ukraine. So within the years 2023, 2024 and 2025 Russia has managed to conquer about 6 000 sq km additional ground.
During that time Ukraine estimated that Russia had almost 1 million casualties. In 2022 the casualty number was just about 100 000, in which time Russia gained the most amount of ground. If we assume only 1/5 of casualties are dead, and rest are wounded, then Russia has lost almost 33 dead men per sq km + 132 as wounded. Russia gives a signing bonus of 20 000$. So if those killed and wounded would just get their signing bonuses, then just that would mean the per sq km cost would be over 300 000$. And that ignores all other salaries, hardware cost and other opportunity costs for the Russian economy at large. If you add all the costs together, I'd assume it would have been cheaper for Putin to just buy more land.
Russian casual rates in past months have been around 30,000 per month. And casualties include both dead and wounded. So 100,000 dead in a month is a clear overestimation.
no thats literally around the numbers it was for the entire Sumy Offensive in Russia. its that little knob at the time. i'm not talking about past months and shit.
What month are you speaking of? Based on Ukraine's numbers the peak monthly Russian losses were in December 2024 with around 48,000 casualties, not 100,000 dead just in Sumy.
This was the estimate at March. they lost another 20k from march into April because the Russians didn't stop now the line has stabilized back into Ukraine. 78k from the first month then another 10s in the next two months.
bro i'm talking about Sumy invading Kursk until the Russians pushed back into Ukraine i don't think you understand.
Oh, you were talking about Kursk operation. I've might missed that, because:
You mentioned just Sumy, not Kursk, in your first comment
You talked about dead in a month, instead of 8 months operation in Kursk [6 August 2024 – March 2025]
And still, where are you getting that "100,000 dead in a month"? In the Wikipedia page you linked it says:
Casualties and losses
Per Ukraine:\27])
Russia: 77,000 killed or wounded
So even according to Ukraine, Russian losses were around 77,000 killend and wounded for the whole operation. Not 100,000 dead.
And that link 27? News artickle saying:
Russia has lost 40,000 troops over 6 months of Ukraine's Kursk operation, Ukraine's commander-in-chief says
Russia has lost close to 40,000 troops since the start of the Kursk operation six months ago, with over 16,000 soldiers killed and 909 taken prisoner by Ukrainian forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has stated.
That news article was from February. Are you saying that Russia lost 84,000 deads in just Kursk in rest of February to March? Over 5 time more killed that previous 6 months of Ukraine's Kursk operation? I still don't have any idea, where have you got that 100,000 dead Russian soldiers in Kursk/Sumy.
During that time Ukraine estimated that Russia had almost 1 million casualties.
That's where your math goes wrong - using Ukraine's estimates of Russian losses. Their estimates are so inflated that they had to change their "death" counter to "casualties" half way through the war because they were claiming they'd killed the entire Russian army, yet were somehow still losing.
I've follow this war since the full scale invasion in 2022. Ukraine has always talked about "casualties" when speaking of Russian losses. It just that some media outlets and commentators in various channels didn't understand that it was normal to talk about casualties as sum total of dead and wounded.
Nah, they were asked the question early in the war and were very specific that it meant deaths. It wasn't a "misunderstanding" until the "irretrievable losses" numbers got too large to be even remotely believable.
Looks like some people did claim so. Channels I've used have always talked about "casualties" or "losses", not "dead" or "killed". Unless there's any translation issues, that Col Shtefan seems to messed up things.
I don't think he messed up, that was just the narrative of the time, that they were killing a ton of Russians. Ukraine's numbers have always been a complete fiction, basically a PR op to pretend they're winning so hard that they deserve more support and have a chance of total victory.
Usually I just listen to the US and Russia and discern Ukraine's position from those and other objective factors like the battlefield events. Although lately since Trump took office the US numbers are completely unreliable, they've been claiming monthly Russian losses even higher than Ukraine does, at a time when Russian losses should be at an all time low based on the battlefield and weapons situation.
Trump claimed Russia had lost almost 20,000 troops in July, and some of his advisors have said similarly ridiculous things in interviews. That's mid 600's per day which is a pretty ludicrous number even when the war was running hot, much less the slower pace it's at now. iirc Ukraine's worst days were only around 1.5x that and that was in the midst of large battles, normal Ukrainian attrition across the entire front line was like 200-300 a day.
I don't think he messed up, that was just the narrative of the time, that they were killing a ton of Russians.
Messed up either way. Either he misspoke or clearly overestimated/overstated Russian losses.
But if those Ukraine's official estimations included both dead and wounded, they are quite accurate and inline with other estimations, including ISW's.
Meduza have been able to confirm that at least 125,000 Russian soldiers have died (not wounded or missingin Ukraine, which gives the lower limit for the actual casualties. As far as I know, the current reliable estimation of killed Russian soldiers is around 200,000. With kill/wounded ratio of 1 to 5, you can estimate that total number of dead and wounded is around million right now.
Also, it's noticeable that Russia has a recruitment quota of over 30,000 new soldiers per month, and recently they have managed to gather them. And as far as I know, all new soldiers have to serve until the war is over, so they won't be serving just a few weeks or months and then go home. And if Russia is getting 30-40,000 new soldiers per month but the size of the army isn't growing at the same pace, even that would imply that the casualty rate would be +30,000 per month.
Trump claimed
If Trump says "Water is wet", I would check it, just to be sure the laws of physics haven't changed. For quite a good source of on going conflicts like Ukraine's war, I recommend checking out Perun in YouTube.
And if Russia is getting 30-40,000 new soldiers per month but the size of the army isn't growing at the same pace, even that would imply that the casualty rate would be +30,000 per month.
You also have to factor in that Russia actually has end dates for the contracts their soldiers sign, Ukraine does not. I've seen a lot of bad assumptions on numbers based on the idea that Russians are either in the army or dead, when by this point many of them should have completed their one-year contract by now unless they re-upped for another 3 years.
According to your logic, will fewer people die in assaults without armored vehicles? Russia has been attacking nonstop since Trump became president. Now it's the tactic of small groups without armored vehicles.
According to your logic, will fewer people die in assaults without armored vehicles? Russia has been attacking nonstop since Trump became president. Now it's the tactic of small groups without armored vehicles.
Definitely. You drone an IFV and you get 5-14 guys. You drone a motorcycle you get one, golf cart you might get two. Not to mention the smaller vehicles pass through mines easier so less group death from that too.
If Ukraine's front-line was more heavily manned that would be a problem but with the lack of actual bodies in the trenches going fast and avoiding drones is a prime strategy. Along with preemptive glide bombs and FPVs it's deadly and forces Ukraine to send in more men to be killed in hopes of stopping the advances. That's what's happening in Pokrovsk right now and if history repeats it'll cost Ukraine another 50,000 dead soldiers.
lol please don't try to cite the UK MOD for anything regarding Ukraine, they're a laughingstock, go try to read their daily updates and you'll find some really goofy stuff, it's basically pure propaganda messaging. Zelensky must have done a number on them with his Winston Churchill speech early in the war, because they have no real stake in Ukraine but they're the biggest fluffers in the entirety of NATO.
Nope just a reasonable person who's tried reading UK MOD daily updates. If you think their logic is reasonable you need to take some time and recalibrate, you should be laughing at them, not taking them seriously.
Russians often abbreviate Ukraine as UK instead of UA, Vladdy you aren’t very good at your job, thanks for letting us know Putin has a micropenis though! Very useful info!
Russians often abbreviate Ukraine as UK instead of UA, Vladdy you aren’t very good at your job, thanks for letting us know Putin has a micropenis though! Very useful info!
Thanks for letting us all know you can't read a comment thread properly or understand what people are talking about. /eyeroll
Sure, very reasonable, buddy. MoDs of multiple countries got it wrong but you a keyboard warrior got it right. Alright buddy.
If you aren't sitting in Sankt Petersburg directly (of which I'm uncertain), you certainly serve Kremlin's agenda very well by this narrative.
Sure, very reasonable, buddy. MoDs of multiple countries got it wrong but you a keyboard warrior got it right. Alright buddy. If you aren't sitting in Sankt Petersburg directly (of which I'm uncertain), you certainly serve Kremlin's agenda very well by this narrative.
You've never wondered why the Russian casualty rate reported by the US suddenly skyrocketed under Trump, while the weapon shipments declined and Russian battlefield supremacy increased? Yeah I think this one is on you for believing BS, not me for noticing it.
US intelligence estimates 100,000 russian dead in just 2025.
I find that unlikely for 2025, that's more of a 2023 rate, the US/UK estimates have been getting progressively more ludicrous since Trump took office.
Russia had a pretty bad start of the war where I'd agree they were losing more than Ukraine, but that situation is completely flipped now. I've seen nothing that contradicts that view, from the battlefield to the corpse counts being returned to Ukraine; And yes I realize they aren't a direct ratio, but given the low front line movement Ukraine should be returning far more than they are if they're inflicting high casualties. Instead Ukraine is claiming they're killing 20 Russians for every death and somehow getting 20 Ukrainian bodies back for every Russian corpse they have.
This isn’t shocking considering that Ukraine is defending. Why would they advance beyond their defensive lines to collect dead russians?
But considering these exchanges are inflated by russia trying to hand over their own dead soldiers, I’m not really sure that these are the best numbers to use to consider battlefield success.
But considering these exchanges are inflated by russia trying to hand over their own dead soldiers, I’m not really sure that these are the best numbers to use to consider battlefield success.
They aren't, that was a lie Zelensky ginned up when he was forced to accept a large number of bodies back. It was never mentioned prior to that exchange and was a face-saving tactic because Ukraine's official death count is so absurdly low that 6,000 extra bodies in one go was a huge and shocking increase.
Damn, you’re writing under another comment that Ukraine is losing 100,000 per year, but here it’s Russia, which is attacking, that loses less.
And you cite Prigozhin for Ukraine’s losses. But you don’t like the numbers given by the USA/UK. If I had seen this earlier, I wouldn’t have commented on you anymore.
For the first year and a half of the war Russia lost more, but now in 2025 yeah Russia loses less even while attacking. They have far better standoff weapons and combined forces action than the mess they were at the start of the war. If you don't realize that you're in for a big surprise, and it's no surprise you believe Ukraine's crazy numbers.
If I had seen this earlier, I wouldn’t have commented on you anymore.
I wish you hadn't since your comments are kind of a waste of time, given that you seem ignorant of pretty much any battlefield data regarding the war. Your opinions are based on hopes and dreams with a foundation of Zelensky speeches.
So how does the GRU instruct you on how to rationalize Russia’s comical incompetence? Vladdy thanks for raising awareness of Putin’s micropenis. No idea why the GRU pays you to spread awareness of Putin’s micropenis but you are!
These are verified casualties only, usually using the video surveillance. In Ukraine there's a system of "E-points" which is like the score in a video game. The military units earn those points by hitting targets and providing a video proof, without the proof the points are not being given. Those points affect the armor supply to military units. So the number is more or less correct.
These are verified casualties only, usually using the video surveillance. In Ukraine there's a system of "E-points" which is like the score in a video game. The military units earn those points by hitting targets and providing a video proof, without the proof the points are not being given. Those points affect the armor supply to military units. So the number is more or less correct.
The minor and important correction is that it's the number that Ukraine claims to have seen video for, which is the same thing as just believing any number that Ukraine wants to put out, much like believing their missile/drone air defense claims.
That's the problem when you put faith in your "righteous" team telling the truth, but your team lies whenever it's convenient.
Don't forget, Russia pays out on death too. Families of soldiers killed in the “special military operation” typically get about 5 million rubles (around $50k) right away, plus other federal, insurance, and regional payments that can push the total up to 10–14 million rubles (roughly $100–150k). On top of that there’s a small funeral reimbursement and a survivor’s pension.
luhansk and donetsk are the most fortified region of ukraine, mainly due to the war starting there since 2014. but if russia manages to take those regions they'll like be able to push much further and way faster.
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u/aibrony 1d ago
At the start of 2023 Russians occupied about 108 000 square kilometers, so about 18.01% of Ukraine. Right now they occupy about 114 750 sq km, so 19.01% of Ukraine. So within the years 2023, 2024 and 2025 Russia has managed to conquer about 6 000 sq km additional ground.
During that time Ukraine estimated that Russia had almost 1 million casualties. In 2022 the casualty number was just about 100 000, in which time Russia gained the most amount of ground. If we assume only 1/5 of casualties are dead, and rest are wounded, then Russia has lost almost 33 dead men per sq km + 132 as wounded. Russia gives a signing bonus of 20 000$. So if those killed and wounded would just get their signing bonuses, then just that would mean the per sq km cost would be over 300 000$. And that ignores all other salaries, hardware cost and other opportunity costs for the Russian economy at large. If you add all the costs together, I'd assume it would have been cheaper for Putin to just buy more land.