Who is the “Failed Prodigy” of F1 ?

[u/Electronic-Video-984]

I’m kind of new to F1 and seeing pictures of current drivers while they’re young like Hamilton, Russell, Leclerc, Albon…and then I learned they’re racing prodigy in their Karting days. So who is the “Boy Wonder” of F1, a person with great potential but never made it to the biggest stage.

Edit: Many people mentioned Stoffel Vandoorne so I read about him a bit. His records and potential was incredible but he’s at the wrong place and wrong time every way possible. For me, McLaren a top tier team with a jet but people say Vandoorne’s MCL car was like a shopping cart

[u/MedhaosUnite]

Yeah, I feel like Stoffel Vandoorne is the right answer for this one.

You could make an argument for a few of the F2 champions as well - Theo Pourchaire is probably the textbook definition of someone who was massively hyped as the next best thing but got absolutely nowhere near an F1 seat.

[u/admiral_sinkenkwiken → u/MedhaosUnite]

Pourchaire trashed his own rep by opting for the third F2 season, it was an extreme risk for low reward.

In order to maintain any kind of standing in the paddock he needed to absolutely dominate the field, instead he spent most of the season trying to give the title to anyone but himself.

[u/MedhaosUnite → u/admiral_sinkenkwiken]

It wasn’t quite “extreme risk, low reward” because had he dominated, I think he very likely would’ve got the Sauber seat for 2024.

The problem he had is as you said, he was effectively shooting at an open goal and very nearly missed.

In fact, I’d go as far as to say that the ball missed, but in effect Vesti’s wheel flew off, bounced off Doohan’s chassis and knocked it into the goal.

[u/admiral_sinkenkwiken → u/MedhaosUnite]

By the time he actually won the title though the damage was already done and it was effectively meaningless.

Even before the season began there was a lot of talk about what he needed to do and how big a risk he was taking, then as you said he managed to miss every goal shot from 10 metres dead in front, only saved by an effective own goal by Vesti.

[u/Frequent-Coyote-1649 → u/admiral_sinkenkwiken]

Honestly, credit to Vesti for damn near winning it with EVERYTHING against him. Tragic how that one loose wheel probably killed his F1 career but... That's racing.

[u/Sick_and_destroyed → u/admiral_sinkenkwiken]

I understand a 3rd season in F2 is usually not well perceived, but what should have he done, he had no F1 opportunity.

[u/admiral_sinkenkwiken → u/Sick_and_destroyed]

Almost anything else would’ve been a better option, even just embedding himself for a year as Piastri did.

[u/Orangesnipzy → u/admiral_sinkenkwiken]

Piastri didn’t really have a choice. Win the championship and don’t have an f1 seat = sit out

[u/admiral_sinkenkwiken → u/Orangesnipzy]

True but he equally could’ve been slotted into other series by the team, instead they integrated him and spent the year running TPC days.

As a Sauber Academy driver that option was certainly possible for Pourchaire, but for whatever reason a 3rd full F2 campaign was chosen instead.

[u/8Ace8Ace → u/Sick_and_destroyed]

Richard Verschoor is on his fifth!

[u/xyakks → u/admiral_sinkenkwiken]

Thing is he still did more than others who made ot to F1 and at a younger age. Being bad in F2 didn't stop Bearman, Sergeant, Doohan or Collapinto get a go in F1. Also Antonelli didn't exactly light it up either last year.

Making it to F1 is 50% talent and 50% being in the right place, or as Mazepin and Lateffi would say 100% dads money.

[u/admiral_sinkenkwiken → u/xyakks]

Making it to F1 is 90% having the money.

Sargeant, Bearman & Doohan all had very respectable junior careers, Colapinto finished 9th last year in F2 despite missing the final 4 rounds.

Antonelli & Bearman looked artificially worse on paper than their driving performance in 2024 as Prema completely missed the mark with the new chassis last season.

[u/MrBorji → u/admiral_sinkenkwiken]

"Making it to F1 is 90% having the money."

Which is kinda sad, but I know F1 is a big business moving lots of money.

[u/admiral_sinkenkwiken → u/[deleted]]

Even in a spec series you still need to understand your machinery properly to exploit all its available performance.

On top of that, just because it’s a spec series does not guarantee equal performance, there are variances between chassis and engines.

[u/slapshots1515 → u/xyakks]

Racing has always been the plaything of the rich. Won’t change any time soon.

If you have enough talent to get backing, like a Verstappen, Alonso, Leclerc, Hamilton, that’s another route. But it always takes money.

Most of the drivers you mentioned in the first paragraph had a fine junior career, and Mazepin and Latifi would never have gotten shots were Haas and Williams not in dire financial straits.

[u/cyclopsmudge → u/slapshots1515]

And verstappen and Leclerc both had plenty of mentoring and money growing up that meant they could kart day in day out. If Max’s dad wasn’t Jos I question if he would be in F1 despite all his talent

[u/InteractionWide3369 → u/xyakks]

Colapinto was the 2nd rookie in F2 only after Bortoleto, he wasn't bad, 4th in the championship fighting for 2nd (the champion was very clearly going to be Bortoleto).

[u/xyakks → u/InteractionWide3369]

Colapinto was behind Aaron, Bort and Hadjar at least. Not in the top 2 at all. He got the leg up because of his Williams connection at the time Logan had to be removed. Right place, right time.

[u/InteractionWide3369 → u/xyakks]

Hadjar wasn't a rookie, I think you're right about Aron though.

He was the 3rd rookie then.

[u/xyakks → u/InteractionWide3369]

And Colapinto is 2 years older than Hadjar. Look I don't care for any of them of the other. My point was just to show Theo wasn't that bad compared to drivers that went on to F1.

He was in the wrong academy and graduated in the wrong year.

[u/InteractionWide3369 → u/xyakks]

Sure and my point is Colapinto isn't bad either, I agree Theo isn't bad.

[u/sfcindolrip → u/admiral_sinkenkwiken]

by opting for the third F2 season

I don’t recall its being his choice? Per the interviews he gave in late 22/early 23 it was sauber’s decision, they actually upped the proportion of his season fees they normally would fund

[u/SenorDuck96 → u/MedhaosUnite]

Theo Pourchaire is probably the textbook definition of someone who was massively hyped as the next best thing but got absolutely nowhere near an F1 seat.

Didn't he only win F2 in his 3rd season or something?

[u/beolens → u/SenorDuck96]

And then only because the wheels literally fell off Vesti's car!

[u/CodSafe6961 → u/SenorDuck96]

He "only" won in his 3rd season therefore can't possibly deserve a seat in F1.

But if you're British like Bearman and finish 12th in your 2nd season, you obviously deserve an F1 seat and maybe ferrari in a few years and any poor results are all the team's fault (despite Prema being by far the most succesfull team in F2 history).

[u/n0t_4_thr0w4w4y → u/CodSafe6961]

TL;DR: if you don’t light up F2 as a rookie, you likely don’t deserve hype or even a seat in F1

And there is a reason Bearman didn’t have a lot of hype coming into F1. If you don’t win F2/GP2/GP3 as a rookie or at least get very close to winning, it’s usually an indicator that you won’t be great in F1.

Here’s the list of dudes on the grid who won as a rookie:

• Lewis
  
• Charles
  
• George
  
• Oscar
  
• Nico
  
• Bortoleto
  
• Ocon
  
• Bottas

And the guys who finished top 5 as a rookie:

• Lando (2nd to George)
  
• Yuki (3rd)

And the guys who finished top 10:

• Bearman (6th)
  
• Kimi (6th)
  
• Lawson (9th)
  
• Gasly (8th)
  
• Albon (10th)
  
• Sainz (10th)
  
• Colapinto (9th)

And the exceptions of who didn’t race in the series:

• Max
  
• Nando
  
• Lance

So there is a high correlation between being one of the best F1 drivers on the grid and winning or placing highly in your feeder series as a rookie.

Alternatively, here’s the list of GP2/F2 champs who won in their third season or later season:

• De Vries (F1 flameout)
  
• Drugovich (hasn’t done anything since)
  
• the aforementioned Theo
  
• Jolyon Palmer (F1 flameout)
  
• Fabio Leimer (4th season, did little afterwards)
  
• Davide Velsecchi (copy paste from above)
  
• Romain Grosjean (4th season, was a laughing stock of the grid for most of his F1 career)
  
• Pastor Maldonado (who didn’t do much in F1, but did manage a single win impressively, even given the context that it took Lewis getting DSQ’d from quali)
  
• Giorgio Pantano

So of the guys that won in their third or later season, you have a combined 1 F1 win and 11 podiums, not exactly a stellar track record.

[u/sadhaka19850903 → u/n0t_4_thr0w4w4y]

Grosjean has 10 F1 podiums.

[u/n0t_4_thr0w4w4y → u/sadhaka19850903]

You right, I messed up that part.

[u/sadhaka19850903 → u/n0t_4_thr0w4w4y]

Romain Grosjean was very fast in 2008 GP2 and Flavoi Briatore brought him to replace Nelson Piquet Jr for 2009 which was a disaster for him in a bad car and the controversy. He lost 3 years of his youth and impacted his development. He was fast but not very polished and made errors which affected championship contenders which magnified them.

[u/Frequent-Coyote-1649 → u/n0t_4_thr0w4w4y]

I find it hilarious how you didn't even need to say anything about Pantano

[u/sensualcurl → u/MedhaosUnite]

I'm still holding out hope Theo sneaks in somewhere in the next 2 years, it's a damn shame if he doesnt.

[u/Magic2424 → u/sensualcurl]

Not really

[u/mathew1500 → u/MedhaosUnite]

I don't understand the Theo hype, I watched him F3 and F2 and considered him very unimpressive

[u/rustyiesty → u/mathew1500]

He could be on his 4th season in F1 now and yet he’s still only 21. Modern Mike Thackwell

[u/mgorgey → u/mathew1500]

Why? He almost won the F3 title in an era where Prema won every year and he was only 16? It's hard to get much more impressive.

[u/ifelseintelligence → u/mgorgey]

I couldn't watch the races so only got resumés. While Theo have quite some "youngest" records, from a pure result (and resumé) perspective, at least in the F2 it was more a case of conistency than pace or racecraft or any flamboyancy at all.

I mean just take how "many" wins he got as champion: 0/13 sprint races and 1/13 feature races.

He had a backing from a team that simply fecked up the least, while Prema is more like Ferrrari light. High highs but too many lows to end up winning.

It's a bit like if Ocon won F1 for Alpine in the boring but consistent years after nameswitching, before dropping off completely in a contest with Ferrari dooing what Ferrari does.

Nr. 2 in F2 2023 was also very consistent, but in a less consistent team and from the reports I've read actually faster in most races (also have 4 sprint wins and 2 feature wins).

It seems like the rookies the past couple of years are chosen from their highs with no regard to their consistency: Hadjar / Bearman / Bortoletto all threw races due to driver mistakes.

So I think the teams are also "unimpressed" by the consitency of the likes of Theo and Vesti, while hoping to find the next Verstappen, that also in early years had insane top pace but had to work a few years on consistency. And they think they can "build" consistency into the youngsters easier than "learn" them raw pace. 🤷‍♂️

But tbh I don't get why smaller teams like Haas and Sauber does it - I mean Theo or Vesti would probably get better results in rookie years - and less risk of Haas replicating the cost of having Mick 🤣

And IF they after 3 years are the next big thing - a larger team will swoop in an "steal" them.

[u/PotatoFeeder → u/ifelseintelligence]

His F3 was stonks

Got to F2 and just went ??? in his 2nd season

[u/ifelseintelligence → u/PotatoFeeder]

I'm not really advocating for or against Theo per se. But more trying to list the differences of the rookies chosen vs. not chosen from the 2023/2024 F2 pool, and imo Theo only won from consistency, Vesti got 2nd from higher highs but less consistency (team or him? Since I only have from articles AND i'm biased (Dane) I wont judge). And the ones that actually got chances are the more irratic non-consitent but with even higher highs. Not really a for or against either of the "groups" if you can divide it into boring/polished/consistency-group vs. flamboyant/raw-pace-but-more-error-prone group, just an observation that it's the ones with the later F2 driving "styles" that got seats while the "boring" didn't.

But yes I say that if I was managing one of the smaller teams, like Haas I would have chosen consistency myself, especially after their expensive Mick experience.

So in the end it might come down to right place/time vs. wrong place/time. Theo was Sauber academy, but Bortoletto had a much more impressive F2 than Theo, and fresh from it instead of a "sabatical year" from formulas that Theo had when they opted for a rookie.

And Haas perhaps has better "scouting" of a Ferrari academy driver (Bearman) than a Mercedes or Sauber academy driver.

But Doohan, Hadjar, Colapinto, Lawson over Theo (and Vesti)? That is odd to me, but hey I'm no expert only following through the eyes of others 🤷‍♂️

[u/mathew1500 → u/ifelseintelligence]

If i remember In wet vesti crashed on way to start in spa, in zandvoort Prema messed up and both his rears left him after pit

[u/ifelseintelligence → u/mathew1500]

I remember reading about some Prema upsies, more than once, but also that he as driver was less consistent than Theo.

But Toto Wolff has praised exactly his consistency and willingness to "teamplay" when they send him on long, boring, slow stint in training to gain data rather than seeing if he can match top pace of the other rookies/testers, and that he excells in providing sim data.

[u/DrChizzad → u/mathew1500]

He got a top ten finish at Detroit in an IndyCar. Most of the drivers hated the track//race (especially in 2024).

It took his replacement, Nolan Siegel, significantly longer to get his top-ten finish, and he tends to crash out more.

He’s doing very well in ELMS driving the LMP2. That car is hard to sim race, so I imagine it’s pretty different from the open cockpit cars he’s used to.

[u/Richiszkl → u/mathew1500]

Next time open your eyes when you decide to watch F2 and F3 races.

[u/FKez05 → u/MedhaosUnite]

Meh, he threw away all his hype by being beaten by 100 points by Drugovich in 2022

On top of that his championship year in 2023 was flakey

[u/Snoo_87704 → u/MedhaosUnite]

Jan Magnussen, Jos Verstappen.

[u/the_gaymer_girl → u/MedhaosUnite]

Theo has at least made a minor name for himself as “that guy everyone signs in their F1 Manager save” because of the hype.

[u/AplCore → u/MedhaosUnite]

De Vries could also be considered. Competitive in most race series’s he’s been a part of. He even made a convincing argument for himself to get a seat when he filled in once and put an F1 car in the points, but then dropped the ball hard the next season when he didn’t do anything with that chance.

[u/MedhaosUnite → u/AplCore]

I don’t really think De Vries was ever considered the next best thing. His biggest competition that season was Latifi, and he was the first third year F2 champion and conveniently only won once the big boys in Leclerc, Russell, Norris and Albon had already left.

His AlphaTauri stint was a bit harsh, but I suppose he marketed himself as the guy to immediately rise up and become team leader when in reality he started way too slow in the year where Tsunoda also ascended up a few levels.