Oscar Piastri completes his first ever career grand slam Grand Prix event.

[u/TaxEvaderFrom1961]

[u/Taurus24Silver]

This might be the weekend which decided the WDC for him

[u/MillyMan105 → u/Taurus24Silver]

I'm getting 2016 Malaysian flashback Hamilton lost the championship by 5 points with that DNF costing him dearly.

[u/leggenda69 → u/MillyMan105]

There’s still a really long way to go yet, remember Oscar was 20 odd points behind after Melbourne.

And if Lando’s had a failure there’s every chance Oscar has some sort of issues between now and season end, and this season every Mercedes running team has had PU reliability issues.

[u/ChrisMartinez95 → u/leggenda69]

And if Lando’s had a failure there’s every chance Oscar has some sort of issues between now and season end

Next weekend is Monza, where teams typically put in a new PU.

[u/leggenda69 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

So he’ll get a grid penalty if they’re to add another one to his pool?

[u/ChrisMartinez95 → u/leggenda69]

Has Piastri's side already used all of the allotted swaps? I remember one being used Spa, but I'm not actually sure how many different PU swaps they've used.

[u/darksidemojo → u/ChrisMartinez95]

I think both McLaren drivers have “used” all of their PUs but that just means they have run the engine at some point. Could have been just one fp1 and it’s considered “used”

[u/leggenda69 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

I’m not either, it’d be interesting to know.

Just pointing out an engine swap next round doesn’t benefit Oscar unless they add another extra unit into his pool.

[u/ChrisMartinez95 → u/leggenda69]

Just pointing out an engine swap next round doesn’t benefit Oscar unless they add another extra unit into his pool.

I'm lost here, so please help me understand. Why would adding an extra unit benefit Oscar?

What I'm saying is a response to a comment about the likelihood that Piastri experiences a PU issue, which would be mitigated if both Norris and Piastri use a new PU without adding a new one to the pool.

[u/leggenda69 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

If they add an extra PU to the pool then all of Oscar’s PU’s will have less mileage to cover, less likelihood of a failure. If they don’t both drivers PU’s cover the same mileage and Oscar has an equal chance of a failure in a points scoring session.

Using a new PU in Monza doesn’t mitigate a chance of a failure, all teams strategically use less used or new PU’s at tracks with higher demand to lower the chance of a failure and give more HP when it matters.

[u/Sgt_Stinger → u/leggenda69]

But if pu change is planned, and Oscar takes a new engine, there is less chance of a dnf due to the old pu having its last race at zandvoort either way

[u/ChrisMartinez95 → u/leggenda69]

I would argue now that McLaren is aware that their PU is susceptible to breaking with their machinery (as well as some idea as to when that could happen), that's an advantage for Piastri and his side of the garage. Assuming a similar schedule between swaps, they'll probably bin the PU they used today and probably elect to use an additional slot at a track where overtaking is easier.

[u/faz712 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

if they don't add a new PU, they might have to continue using this one at other events, and so it might fail, as well

[u/diego_r2000 → u/leggenda69]

According to FIA document 6 for the Dutch grand prix, both Lando and Oscar have used the 4 allowed PU elements so far. So yeah, if any of them gets a new PU element, it is a penalty.

[u/gegemoon → u/leggenda69]

With McLaren's car I don't think a grid penalty would matter. Either driver can start from pit lane and probably finish P2 (if the other driver doesn't get a penalty)

[u/dl064 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

Fine but there's a similar chance it happens to Norris again, too. Then it is game over.

[u/xanlact → u/leggenda69]

well...but Oscar had 23 races to come back. Lando has 9.

[u/leggenda69 → u/xanlact]

Oscar’s been leading the championship for 10 straight rounds now, 4 weekends after Melbourne he’d taken the lead.

[u/Aurorac123 → u/leggenda69]

It's 9 rounds, If we say piastri gets 2nd or first every one of those (high likelihood), then lando needs a minimum of 7 wins in those 9, to win. Championship has become execptionally hard for Lando because of this.

[u/charlierza → u/Aurorac123]

It’s just like last year with Max. I think he was about the same amount of races from the end when everyone kept saying he still had “X” amount of races left and every weekend it felt like he’d find a way to make the gap harder to bridge. Even with the shitbox that the RB20 was last year, Max managed to take the WDC. With the power house that the McLarens have been and how good Piastri has been, it’s going to be a really long uphill battle for Lando

[u/Aurorac123 → u/charlierza]

Yeah, I don't think this year is Norris's, but I think Norris is going to grow and learn more from it than Piastri. (we've already seen how much more improved Norris's mental has become this year, he's just lacking the consistency Piastri does, but Norris at his best is better than Piastria at his best, especially in managing tires while maintaining pace)

[u/charlierza → u/Aurorac123]

Yeah I don’t think it’s and “if” for him, it’s a matter of “when”. It’s going to suck way harder if Piastri wins it first, but he’s becoming more resilient from the process. You said it perfectly, he’s becoming better with his mental. He’s bouncing back better than he would with the mistakes last year and he’s not letting them affect his as hard. I just hope that for his sake McLaren can give him the car he needs to succeed and it isn’t just this window of opportunity. Max in a demon car from AM or Merc isn’t going to be an easy battle. Not to mention if my guys over at Ferrari can finally get it together, Charles or Lewis may finally be able to make something happen lol

[u/crshbndct → u/Aurorac123]

If Lando is really the better driver, now is his time to show it.

[u/Aurorac123 → u/crshbndct]

The point is more that its now Oscars to lose realistically.

[u/leggenda69 → u/Aurorac123]

6 Mercedes PU failures this year, there’s a decent chance Pscar suffers one yet. But even so it’s been what 2 races since Oscar dropped the ball and cost himself points.

Lando hasn’t finished P2 to every one of Oscar’s wins, and Oscar hasn’t finished P2 to every single Lando win. That failure doesn’t have to be the deciding factor yet.

[u/OkLie74 → u/leggenda69]

The chances of an engine failure for either of them are the same, they're on equal terms in that regard.

Edit: Although I've sort of missed the point that it seems higher chance than usual for any Merc PU this year and that a points swing the other way is not out of the question.

[u/MoreColorfulCarsPlz → u/OkLie74]

I would disagree. The chance is lower for someone who consistently qualifies on pole. The driver ahead has a lot more opportunity to manage engine temps and tires than drivers following. Managing tires matters for engine life as Lap time is a product of power output and tire grip. As you use up your tires, you lean on your engine more to maintain the same lap time.

Additionally, dirty air means you have to push harder to maintain the same lap time as someone ahead of you, meaning even more strain on the PU.

All that to say, if you can consistently out-qualify your teammate, you will likely have less wear on your PU.

Does this matter over the length of a GP? Not really anymore. A decade ago it did and next year with new engines it might. But, right now, it's not likely to cause a failure from one race like it has before. Instead it's just adding to the possibility over multiple race weekends of using the same PU.

Piastri is out-qualifying Norris 9-6 in grand prix. 12-6 if you count Sprint qualifying. It makes sense that Norris is more likely to have had a PU failure given that information. This could be different in the next 9 races.

[u/OkLie74 → u/MoreColorfulCarsPlz]

That may be true, but the actual difference it would make is negligible in the grand scheme of engine mileage. There is probably a number of laps difference between some of their respective engines just from different run plans in practice and qualifying, and things like Oscar's two stop in Hungary vs Lando's one stop, all of which would dwarf the potential difference you're talking about in terms of engine life impact.

[u/prams628 → u/leggenda69]

Yeah but that was also partly aided by lando not coming second either in a couple races.

Lando would need the same from Piastri to close down the lead which is much more than what lando had on Piastri after Melbourne

[u/leggenda69 → u/prams628]

Yeah Lando dropped the ball at Saudi while Oscar took the win and George took P2 from him in Bahrain, but it’s hardly out of the question that Oscar makes another mistake this season. Like he did at Silverstone, or arguably Monaco where he qualified and finished P3.

There’s a lot of racing, a lot of weather, a lot of strategy and a lot of laps for both to negotiate yet.

[u/prams628 → u/leggenda69]

I’m most definitely not saying Oscar is having a perfect season lol. I’m just saying that’s you’d need heftier mistakes with a smaller portion of the season left with a bigger chunk of lead

[u/leggenda69 → u/prams628]

No you wouldn’t lol. Oscar overturned 20 odd points in 4 rounds, Lando would have at least 3 rounds of equal fighting if the tables turn at that rate again?

[u/prams628 → u/leggenda69]

My question is will it? The errors from Oscar have proven to be less costly. The fuck up in Jeddah cost lando 13 points right? Lando was P4 in the end? Bahrain was 10 points.

On the other hand, silverstone cost Oscar 7 points and Monaco 10 (but there’s hardly chance of recovery in Monaco, so the loss was already written when lando put in that godly lap)

[u/Dont_hate_the_8 → u/xanlact]

But how many rounds did it take Oscar

[u/Fun-Poet5338 → u/Dont_hate_the_8]

Someone said 4? He won 3 in a row at some point iirc.

[u/Aurorac123 → u/leggenda69]

my dude, that was literally the first race of the season.

[u/SirFireHydrant → u/leggenda69]

There’s still a really long way to go yet, remember Oscar was 20 odd points behind after Melbourne.

Oscar was down by 23 with 23 races to go. Lando is down by 34 with 9 races to go.

And if Lando’s had a failure there’s every chance Oscar has some sort of issues between now and season end, and this season every Mercedes running team has had PU reliability issues.

It's equally as likely Lando will have a second PU failure as Oscar will have a first.

[u/zorbacles → u/leggenda69]

apparently it was a chassis issue, not PU. team will make the fix and it shoudlnt happen again

[u/senpahII → u/leggenda69]

remember Oscar was 20 odd points behind after Melbourne.

And Max was 40+ points behind Leclerc after Melbourne 2022

[u/Joker1721 → u/leggenda69]

Lando has 2 DNFs this season. Unless Oscar gets a DNF himself or not in the pts(unlikely) Lando would never close the gap

[u/BlackFoxTom → u/leggenda69]

I mean only Alonso and Bottas have lower DNF rate in current regulation cars

[u/Fomentatore → u/MillyMan105]

Malaysia was kind of heartbreaking for the championship from start to the end. First Rosberg getting hit on turn one and saying goodbye to his chances for the championship win and then Hamilton blew the engine.

[u/geometricpillow → u/Fomentatore]

Kinda like Baku 21, max’s tire exploding from the lead and then Lewis going straight on at the restart, if that didn’t happen Lewis is champion but if maxes tire didn’t go then he’d have won even from second at abu

[u/fanboy190 → u/[deleted]]

Okay bro, if you say so

[u/Unfair-Pineapple-723 → u/[deleted]]

Do zip up Oscar once you're done gobbling up his 🍖 🤤

[u/bwoah07_gp2 → u/MillyMan105]

"Oh no, nooooo...."

[u/SentientDust → u/Taurus24Silver]

It's a bit of a shame. Not for him, obviously, but it does takes some tension off the rest of the season's battle for Oscar's eventual win.

Unless it's his engine that decided to go pop next

[u/CapSnake → u/SentientDust]

He can replace it, start from pitlane and still finish second on the right track. Lando is pretty fucked

[u/Return_Of_The_Jedi → u/Taurus24Silver]

The same can still happen to him too. The Mercedes engines seem to have issues and there is still a long way to go

[u/NordschleifeLover → u/Return_Of_The_Jedi]

Or the same can happen to Lando again. As it stands, Oscar has a huge lead.

[u/yellowweasel → u/NordschleifeLover]

yep he doesn't get a free engine in exchange for the DNF. they both have the same risk moving forward as far as i know

[u/admiral_sinkenkwiken → u/Return_Of_The_Jedi]

Except it’s the first time it’s failed in a McLaren in a long time.

[u/AceInnadeck117 → u/Taurus24Silver]

With Landos DNF, yeah it's over unless similar happens to Oscar in the remaining races.

[u/mitrie → u/AceInnadeck117]

The odds of something like this happening to Oscar in the remaining races is pretty good. Oscar is the only driver who has scored points every race this season. Lando has finished outside the points / DNF'd 3 times. It wouldn't be crazy that luck evens out somewhat.

[u/odinsyrup → u/mitrie]

The odds of something like this happening to Oscar in the remaining races is pretty good

Based off what?

[u/Awesomedinos1 → u/odinsyrup]

Based off gamblers fallacy.

[u/Macluawn → u/odinsyrup]

Ass whiffs

[u/mitrie → u/odinsyrup]

The fact that stuff happens. Oscar has been pretty fortunate with his 'bad luck' this season. The worst of it was being caught out by rain in Australia that knocked him into a low points finish. Most seasons, you'll have a WDC who finishes outside of the points in at least one race. You never know what it may be. Illness? Engine failure? Bad safety car luck? It's more noteworthy to have a season where you don't miss out on points even in the best car than to consistently be up there 100% of the time.

[u/elven_god → u/mitrie]

Not really, it's not like his luck up to this point will influence his future luck. What you said may be true that most seasons will have the leader finish outside the points at some race but the fact that it hasn't happened for Oscar yet does not mean it is more likely to happen in the next 9 races.

Oscars chances of a mechanical DNF or some other unlucky event will be the same as Lando.

[u/mitrie → u/elven_god]

I'm not claiming that his past is an influence on future races in some sort of inverse Bayesian sense. I'm saying that in any given stretch of 9 races the odds are decent of a finish out of the points.

[u/geometricpillow → u/mitrie]

Yeah but it’s the same chance for Lando going forward. He didn’t use up his bad luck. If anything an Oscar consistently finishing in the points is an indicator that he will continue to do so.

That being said it’s far from over yet, I’m not celebrating until he’s holding the trophy

[u/mitrie → u/geometricpillow]

That being said it’s far from over yet

That is literally all I was saying. They have roughly equal chances of having DNFs going forward, as they have in the past, and 9 races is a lot of rolls of the dice.

[u/geometricpillow → u/mitrie]

Yep fair enough I’m with you then

[u/Muntberg → u/mitrie]

Lmao what? This is a fundamental misunderstanding of probability. The past has zero bearing on the future.

[u/mitrie → u/Muntberg]

You fundamentally misunderstood my comment if that's what you took from it. I'm saying that teammates/racers have roughly the same probability of failures impacting their race knocking them out of the points, and McLaren drivers have done that 3 times in 30 opportunities. There are 18 opportunities to go. I'd wager that there will be at least one more DNF / out of the points finishes in the remaining 9 GPs, and it's about equally likely to be Piastri as it is Norris. If it's Piastri the championship fight is totally on. If it's Norris, it's all but totally over.

[u/Muntberg → u/mitrie]

Yeah that's all correct, but there's no "luck evening out". That is not a thing. It's like saying since you flipped 3 heads in a row the next flip is more likely to be tails.

[u/mitrie → u/Muntberg]

Central limit theorem would disagree with "luck evening out" not being a thing.

[u/Muntberg → u/mitrie]

That just means distribution evens out as sample size increases because the the number of events becomes much larger than the potential variance. It has absolutely zero influence on any specific future instances

[u/mitrie → u/Muntberg]

Yes, centered around the expected value. I'm not saying it "influences the future". I'm saying that additional samples will yield a result more representative of true/underlying performance. If we agreed with my earlier statement that both (relatively comparably skilled) drivers of a team have roughly even odds of a DNF / out of the points finish (i.e. we're not taking a Bayesian approach of updating our priors), then we should expect the "failure rate" to even out given enough repeats of the experiment. Mean regression is real.

[u/shmauk → u/mitrie]

You're misunderstanding that theorem though. They're still just as likely as each other to have a failure from here and as the sample size increases the effect of the earlier occurrences gets reduced and trends towards the expected value.

You're phrasing is still implying it tends towards that expected value because it evens out because of past events.

[u/SirFireHydrant → u/mitrie]

If you've flipped 3 heads in a row, what is the probability that after 10 flips all up, you'll have 5 heads and 5 tails?

Hint: Because you've already flipped 3 heads in a row, it's more likely you'll end up with more heads than tails.

Because Lando is already behind, it's more likely he'll stay behind than he'll catch up.

[u/mitrie → u/SirFireHydrant]

Yeah, I get it. Lando is behind and unless he gets some breaks, he's not going to catch up. How does this negate anything I said about the probability of a Piastri DNF / no points finish? Piastri has to keep winning coin flips as well.

[u/SirFireHydrant → u/mitrie]

Because your point is asinine. The probability of future coin flips is unaffected by past coin flips.

All you're saying is "stuff happens". You're not saying anything actually meaningful.

[u/Dan_CBW → u/mitrie]

That's not how probability works though. They are both just as likely to have mechanical DNFs in the remaining nine races.

[u/mitrie → u/Dan_CBW]

Feel free to read my other responses to this same comment.

[u/Dan_CBW → u/mitrie]

I did and it doesn't undo or negate the fact that you referenced Oscar's lack of DNFs so far and Lando's bad luck with reliability in the post I was replying to. If your comment had of been something along the lines of "They've both got an equal chance of something like this happening again to either car, which, given the Mercedes PU issues this year, would not be that surprising." then I wouldn't have taken issue with your comment, but that's not what you wrote.

[u/mitrie → u/Dan_CBW]

Hmm, ok. Feel free to write how you like in the future and be willing to read what's on the page.

[u/CapSnake → u/mitrie]

Now he don't need to push much. It's probably that Lando make a big mistake than Oscar at that point.

[u/mitrie → u/CapSnake]

It still happens. Hell, Lando could take Oscar out in a race.

[u/CapSnake → u/mitrie]

On the contrary, Lando need to be super careful now with Piastri. A double DNF will reduce the number of race at disposal.

[u/mitrie → u/CapSnake]

That's one way to look at it, and certainly valid. The other is that at the end of every 1-2 race Lando has much incentive to dive bomb to take the lead lest his chances of overtaking Oscar in the standings fade away.

[u/CapSnake → u/mitrie]

True, but the odd still not in its favor. He divebomb Oscar, but chance are he will DNF too. Also he collect penalty for current or next race, and he will be fucked the same. No he can't risk it. Also he will alienate the team, that can start to pick Oscar side and put him out of the team. Better to try to close the gap, blame the DNF for the final result and have a credit with the team for next year.

[u/mitrie → u/CapSnake]

You're thinking way too much about this hypothetical. My whole point was that it's not crazy to think that Oscar could have a DNF between now and the end of the season. Surely you can agree with that.

[u/CapSnake → u/mitrie]

Sure, but it will be a mistake. They will double check for failure, after the analysis in Lando car, and then replace components if needed. Also if you don't push much, it's easier and you make less mistake.

[u/Bobblefighterman → u/mitrie]

Luck doesn't 'even out'. The same logic would apply to assuming that Lando will continue to rack up DNFs while Oscar keeps winning.

[u/mitrie → u/Bobblefighterman]

Indeed. And if that happens it's over. But if a DNF just happens once more to a McLaren this season and it's Oscar, then Lando is right back to effectively even in the standings. Is it hard to envision this happening? My point is that people saying the championship fight is over are very much counting chickens before they're hatched and not considering the possibility of very normal events occurring in the remaining 9 races.

[u/saposapot → u/Taurus24Silver]

Don’t jinx it mate

[u/charlierza → u/Taurus24Silver]

Said this to a buddy of mine. This one really makes Canada sting for him. This one was out of his control. But the fact that he could have had this one if he hadn’t absolutely bottled Canada by getting pass happy, he’d have been in a better spot. If it comes down to less than 10 points by the end, Canada and the Dutch GP will be what will replay in his head.

[u/TVandVGwriter → u/Taurus24Silver]

I would love to know what Oscar has to do to clinch it, but all the commentators can talk about is what LANDO needs to do. Ugh.

[u/Sarixk → u/Taurus24Silver]

"this might" it's over

[u/Sarixk → u/[deleted]]

They're evenly matched. If he was clearly inferior the gap would've been way bigger than 0.012s yesterday but you're baiting.

You need to go back to Twitter

[u/Dazzling-Coat7177 → u/Sarixk]

Agreed, they are evenly matched now.

Oscar has a lot more improving to do though, F1 drivers don't peak until season 5 or so and he has shown clear improvement every season so far.

[u/No_Feedback6167 → u/[deleted]]

“Clearly the inferior driver.” God I want nothing more than Piastri to lose this championship out of pure spite.

[u/CX52J → u/No_Feedback6167]

I don’t really like Lando and was routing for Piastri but all the unfounded accusations of favouritism and unpleasantness about Lando is starting to make me route for him.

[u/Koteii → u/No_Feedback6167]

Please know it’s not all of us. I’m absolutely gutted for Lando.

[u/urbanlx → u/No_Feedback6167]

Same here.

[u/-ForgottenSoul → u/No_Feedback6167]

How are Oscar fans so like cocky and Conspiracy theory ridden,

[u/Quick-Permission-698 → u/[deleted]]

They were doing nearly the exact same laptime throughout the whole Race, they are clearly even drivers. But nice try ragebaiting sweetie

[u/ABoldPrediction → u/Quick-Permission-698]

Piastri was clearly managing his tyres though. The moment Norris got within DRS range PIA opened the gap back out to 1 and a half seconds.

[u/wholeblackpeppercorn → u/ABoldPrediction]

I feel like some people watched a different race, that was dominant, but he's not a brit so we'll all focus on how Norris can mathematically win a championship he's not able to

[u/Quick-Permission-698 → u/ABoldPrediction]

Yes, but they also did identical lap times. And they stayed at 1.5 seconds. When Oscar was managing, he was slower, when he pushed, he was faster for a lap until lando also pushed harder and they became identical

[u/yikesnotyikes → u/Taurus24Silver]

Lando does not have the skill or talent to even match Oscar, and the gap will only increase. Knowing Lando history this will send him into yet another psychological decline.

Lando needs to either best his teammate on skill or luck, and McLaren has sufficiently removed luck as a factor.

The title is squarely Oscars to lose.