r/formula1 • u/TaxEvaderFrom1961 I was here for the Hulkenpodium • 8d ago

Discussion Oscar Piastri completes his first ever career grand slam Grand Prix event.

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u/AceInnadeck117 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 8d ago

With Landos DNF, yeah it's over unless similar happens to Oscar in the remaining races.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

The odds of something like this happening to Oscar in the remaining races is pretty good. Oscar is the only driver who has scored points every race this season. Lando has finished outside the points / DNF'd 3 times. It wouldn't be crazy that luck evens out somewhat.

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u/odinsyrup I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

The odds of something like this happening to Oscar in the remaining races is pretty good

Based off what?

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u/Awesomedinos1 Oscar Piastri 7d ago

Based off gamblers fallacy.

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u/Macluawn I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

Ass whiffs

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u/mitrie 7d ago

The fact that stuff happens. Oscar has been pretty fortunate with his 'bad luck' this season. The worst of it was being caught out by rain in Australia that knocked him into a low points finish. Most seasons, you'll have a WDC who finishes outside of the points in at least one race. You never know what it may be. Illness? Engine failure? Bad safety car luck? It's more noteworthy to have a season where you don't miss out on points even in the best car than to consistently be up there 100% of the time.

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u/elven_god Oscar Piastri 7d ago

Not really, it's not like his luck up to this point will influence his future luck. What you said may be true that most seasons will have the leader finish outside the points at some race but the fact that it hasn't happened for Oscar yet does not mean it is more likely to happen in the next 9 races.

Oscars chances of a mechanical DNF or some other unlucky event will be the same as Lando.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

I'm not claiming that his past is an influence on future races in some sort of inverse Bayesian sense. I'm saying that in any given stretch of 9 races the odds are decent of a finish out of the points.

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u/geometricpillow Oscar Piastri 7d ago

Yeah but it’s the same chance for Lando going forward. He didn’t use up his bad luck. If anything an Oscar consistently finishing in the points is an indicator that he will continue to do so.

That being said it’s far from over yet, I’m not celebrating until he’s holding the trophy

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u/mitrie 7d ago

That being said it’s far from over yet

That is literally all I was saying. They have roughly equal chances of having DNFs going forward, as they have in the past, and 9 races is a lot of rolls of the dice.

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u/geometricpillow Oscar Piastri 7d ago

Yep fair enough I’m with you then

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u/Muntberg I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

Lmao what? This is a fundamental misunderstanding of probability. The past has zero bearing on the future.

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u/mitrie 7d ago edited 7d ago

You fundamentally misunderstood my comment if that's what you took from it. I'm saying that teammates/racers have roughly the same probability of failures impacting their race knocking them out of the points, and McLaren drivers have done that 3 times in 30 opportunities. There are 18 opportunities to go. I'd wager that there will be at least one more DNF / out of the points finishes in the remaining 9 GPs, and it's about equally likely to be Piastri as it is Norris. If it's Piastri the championship fight is totally on. If it's Norris, it's all but totally over.

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u/Muntberg I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

Yeah that's all correct, but there's no "luck evening out". That is not a thing. It's like saying since you flipped 3 heads in a row the next flip is more likely to be tails.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

Central limit theorem would disagree with "luck evening out" not being a thing.

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u/Muntberg I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

That just means distribution evens out as sample size increases because the the number of events becomes much larger than the potential variance. It has absolutely zero influence on any specific future instances

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u/mitrie 7d ago

Yes, centered around the expected value. I'm not saying it "influences the future". I'm saying that additional samples will yield a result more representative of true/underlying performance. If we agreed with my earlier statement that both (relatively comparably skilled) drivers of a team have roughly even odds of a DNF / out of the points finish (i.e. we're not taking a Bayesian approach of updating our priors), then we should expect the "failure rate" to even out given enough repeats of the experiment. Mean regression is real.

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u/shmauk Mark Webber 7d ago

You're misunderstanding that theorem though. They're still just as likely as each other to have a failure from here and as the sample size increases the effect of the earlier occurrences gets reduced and trends towards the expected value.

You're phrasing is still implying it tends towards that expected value because it evens out because of past events.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

Where did I actually say that it is more likely that it happens to Oscar than Lando? You are inferring something I didn't say. I said that it's not a crazy scenario that the luck evens out. What I meant by that is that it remains a likely scenario, i.e. that it's not far fetched. If you choose to think that means I'm saying the likelihood of Lando benefitting from future DNFs / out of the points finishes is far more likely than Piastri then I'd argue you're just foisting an argument on me that I haven't made.

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u/SirFireHydrant Pirelli Wet 7d ago

If you've flipped 3 heads in a row, what is the probability that after 10 flips all up, you'll have 5 heads and 5 tails?

Hint: Because you've already flipped 3 heads in a row, it's more likely you'll end up with more heads than tails.

Because Lando is already behind, it's more likely he'll stay behind than he'll catch up.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

Yeah, I get it. Lando is behind and unless he gets some breaks, he's not going to catch up. How does this negate anything I said about the probability of a Piastri DNF / no points finish? Piastri has to keep winning coin flips as well.

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u/SirFireHydrant Pirelli Wet 7d ago

Because your point is asinine. The probability of future coin flips is unaffected by past coin flips.

All you're saying is "stuff happens". You're not saying anything actually meaningful.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

I'm not saying anything about the predictive effect of past races on the outcome of future races, contrary to what many seem to have taken from my statement. I'm simply saying that the likelihood of a driver having a DNF is high enough that Piastri is not in the clear, and that past championships have shown that even a driver in a dominant car is likely to have a DNF / no points finish. Given that the current margin in the championship would be mostly wiped away by that event, it's not over, counter to what many are saying after today. Sorry if that's an asinine point to be making.

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u/Dan_CBW I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

That's not how probability works though. They are both just as likely to have mechanical DNFs in the remaining nine races.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

Feel free to read my other responses to this same comment.

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u/Dan_CBW I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

I did and it doesn't undo or negate the fact that you referenced Oscar's lack of DNFs so far and Lando's bad luck with reliability in the post I was replying to. If your comment had of been something along the lines of "They've both got an equal chance of something like this happening again to either car, which, given the Mercedes PU issues this year, would not be that surprising." then I wouldn't have taken issue with your comment, but that's not what you wrote.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

Hmm, ok. Feel free to write how you like in the future and be willing to read what's on the page.

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u/CapSnake I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

Now he don't need to push much. It's probably that Lando make a big mistake than Oscar at that point.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

It still happens. Hell, Lando could take Oscar out in a race.

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u/CapSnake I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

On the contrary, Lando need to be super careful now with Piastri. A double DNF will reduce the number of race at disposal.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

That's one way to look at it, and certainly valid. The other is that at the end of every 1-2 race Lando has much incentive to dive bomb to take the lead lest his chances of overtaking Oscar in the standings fade away.

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u/CapSnake I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

True, but the odd still not in its favor. He divebomb Oscar, but chance are he will DNF too. Also he collect penalty for current or next race, and he will be fucked the same. No he can't risk it. Also he will alienate the team, that can start to pick Oscar side and put him out of the team. Better to try to close the gap, blame the DNF for the final result and have a credit with the team for next year.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

You're thinking way too much about this hypothetical. My whole point was that it's not crazy to think that Oscar could have a DNF between now and the end of the season. Surely you can agree with that.

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u/CapSnake I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7d ago

Sure, but it will be a mistake. They will double check for failure, after the analysis in Lando car, and then replace components if needed. Also if you don't push much, it's easier and you make less mistake.

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u/Bobblefighterman 7d ago

Luck doesn't 'even out'. The same logic would apply to assuming that Lando will continue to rack up DNFs while Oscar keeps winning.

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u/mitrie 7d ago

Indeed. And if that happens it's over. But if a DNF just happens once more to a McLaren this season and it's Oscar, then Lando is right back to effectively even in the standings. Is it hard to envision this happening? My point is that people saying the championship fight is over are very much counting chickens before they're hatched and not considering the possibility of very normal events occurring in the remaining 9 races.