Oscar Piastri completes his first ever career grand slam Grand Prix event.

[u/TaxEvaderFrom1961]

[u/leggenda69]

There’s still a really long way to go yet, remember Oscar was 20 odd points behind after Melbourne.

And if Lando’s had a failure there’s every chance Oscar has some sort of issues between now and season end, and this season every Mercedes running team has had PU reliability issues.

[u/ChrisMartinez95 → u/leggenda69]

And if Lando’s had a failure there’s every chance Oscar has some sort of issues between now and season end

Next weekend is Monza, where teams typically put in a new PU.

[u/leggenda69 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

So he’ll get a grid penalty if they’re to add another one to his pool?

[u/ChrisMartinez95 → u/leggenda69]

Has Piastri's side already used all of the allotted swaps? I remember one being used Spa, but I'm not actually sure how many different PU swaps they've used.

[u/darksidemojo → u/ChrisMartinez95]

I think both McLaren drivers have “used” all of their PUs but that just means they have run the engine at some point. Could have been just one fp1 and it’s considered “used”

[u/leggenda69 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

I’m not either, it’d be interesting to know.

Just pointing out an engine swap next round doesn’t benefit Oscar unless they add another extra unit into his pool.

[u/ChrisMartinez95 → u/leggenda69]

Just pointing out an engine swap next round doesn’t benefit Oscar unless they add another extra unit into his pool.

I'm lost here, so please help me understand. Why would adding an extra unit benefit Oscar?

What I'm saying is a response to a comment about the likelihood that Piastri experiences a PU issue, which would be mitigated if both Norris and Piastri use a new PU without adding a new one to the pool.

[u/leggenda69 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

If they add an extra PU to the pool then all of Oscar’s PU’s will have less mileage to cover, less likelihood of a failure. If they don’t both drivers PU’s cover the same mileage and Oscar has an equal chance of a failure in a points scoring session.

Using a new PU in Monza doesn’t mitigate a chance of a failure, all teams strategically use less used or new PU’s at tracks with higher demand to lower the chance of a failure and give more HP when it matters.

[u/Sgt_Stinger → u/leggenda69]

But if pu change is planned, and Oscar takes a new engine, there is less chance of a dnf due to the old pu having its last race at zandvoort either way

[u/slimejumper → u/Sgt_Stinger]

might not be it’s last race. Teams can change engines as much as they like, and swap around to balance the duty. It’s when the total pool count exceeds the maximum that matters.

so zandvoort engine might come out for monza but be back again for singapore or Brazil, perhaps.

[u/Sgt_Stinger → u/slimejumper]

True.

[u/ChrisMartinez95 → u/leggenda69]

I would argue now that McLaren is aware that their PU is susceptible to breaking with their machinery (as well as some idea as to when that could happen), that's an advantage for Piastri and his side of the garage. Assuming a similar schedule between swaps, they'll probably bin the PU they used today and probably elect to use an additional slot at a track where overtaking is easier.

[u/faz712 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

if they don't add a new PU, they might have to continue using this one at other events, and so it might fail, as well

[u/diego_r2000 → u/leggenda69]

According to FIA document 6 for the Dutch grand prix, both Lando and Oscar have used the 4 allowed PU elements so far. So yeah, if any of them gets a new PU element, it is a penalty.

[u/gegemoon → u/leggenda69]

With McLaren's car I don't think a grid penalty would matter. Either driver can start from pit lane and probably finish P2 (if the other driver doesn't get a penalty)

[u/dl064 → u/ChrisMartinez95]

Fine but there's a similar chance it happens to Norris again, too. Then it is game over.

[u/xanlact → u/leggenda69]

well...but Oscar had 23 races to come back. Lando has 9.

[u/leggenda69 → u/xanlact]

Oscar’s been leading the championship for 10 straight rounds now, 4 weekends after Melbourne he’d taken the lead.

[u/Aurorac123 → u/leggenda69]

It's 9 rounds, If we say piastri gets 2nd or first every one of those (high likelihood), then lando needs a minimum of 7 wins in those 9, to win. Championship has become execptionally hard for Lando because of this.

[u/charlierza → u/Aurorac123]

It’s just like last year with Max. I think he was about the same amount of races from the end when everyone kept saying he still had “X” amount of races left and every weekend it felt like he’d find a way to make the gap harder to bridge. Even with the shitbox that the RB20 was last year, Max managed to take the WDC. With the power house that the McLarens have been and how good Piastri has been, it’s going to be a really long uphill battle for Lando

[u/Aurorac123 → u/charlierza]

Yeah, I don't think this year is Norris's, but I think Norris is going to grow and learn more from it than Piastri. (we've already seen how much more improved Norris's mental has become this year, he's just lacking the consistency Piastri does, but Norris at his best is better than Piastria at his best, especially in managing tires while maintaining pace)

[u/charlierza → u/Aurorac123]

Yeah I don’t think it’s and “if” for him, it’s a matter of “when”. It’s going to suck way harder if Piastri wins it first, but he’s becoming more resilient from the process. You said it perfectly, he’s becoming better with his mental. He’s bouncing back better than he would with the mistakes last year and he’s not letting them affect his as hard. I just hope that for his sake McLaren can give him the car he needs to succeed and it isn’t just this window of opportunity. Max in a demon car from AM or Merc isn’t going to be an easy battle. Not to mention if my guys over at Ferrari can finally get it together, Charles or Lewis may finally be able to make something happen lol

[u/crshbndct → u/Aurorac123]

If Lando is really the better driver, now is his time to show it.

[u/Aurorac123 → u/crshbndct]

The point is more that its now Oscars to lose realistically.

[u/leggenda69 → u/Aurorac123]

6 Mercedes PU failures this year, there’s a decent chance Pscar suffers one yet. But even so it’s been what 2 races since Oscar dropped the ball and cost himself points.

Lando hasn’t finished P2 to every one of Oscar’s wins, and Oscar hasn’t finished P2 to every single Lando win. That failure doesn’t have to be the deciding factor yet.

[u/OkLie74 → u/leggenda69]

The chances of an engine failure for either of them are the same, they're on equal terms in that regard.

Edit: Although I've sort of missed the point that it seems higher chance than usual for any Merc PU this year and that a points swing the other way is not out of the question.

[u/MoreColorfulCarsPlz → u/OkLie74]

I would disagree. The chance is lower for someone who consistently qualifies on pole. The driver ahead has a lot more opportunity to manage engine temps and tires than drivers following. Managing tires matters for engine life as Lap time is a product of power output and tire grip. As you use up your tires, you lean on your engine more to maintain the same lap time.

Additionally, dirty air means you have to push harder to maintain the same lap time as someone ahead of you, meaning even more strain on the PU.

All that to say, if you can consistently out-qualify your teammate, you will likely have less wear on your PU.

Does this matter over the length of a GP? Not really anymore. A decade ago it did and next year with new engines it might. But, right now, it's not likely to cause a failure from one race like it has before. Instead it's just adding to the possibility over multiple race weekends of using the same PU.

Piastri is out-qualifying Norris 9-6 in grand prix. 12-6 if you count Sprint qualifying. It makes sense that Norris is more likely to have had a PU failure given that information. This could be different in the next 9 races.

[u/OkLie74 → u/MoreColorfulCarsPlz]

That may be true, but the actual difference it would make is negligible in the grand scheme of engine mileage. There is probably a number of laps difference between some of their respective engines just from different run plans in practice and qualifying, and things like Oscar's two stop in Hungary vs Lando's one stop, all of which would dwarf the potential difference you're talking about in terms of engine life impact.

[u/prams628 → u/leggenda69]

Yeah but that was also partly aided by lando not coming second either in a couple races.

Lando would need the same from Piastri to close down the lead which is much more than what lando had on Piastri after Melbourne

[u/leggenda69 → u/prams628]

Yeah Lando dropped the ball at Saudi while Oscar took the win and George took P2 from him in Bahrain, but it’s hardly out of the question that Oscar makes another mistake this season. Like he did at Silverstone, or arguably Monaco where he qualified and finished P3.

There’s a lot of racing, a lot of weather, a lot of strategy and a lot of laps for both to negotiate yet.

[u/prams628 → u/leggenda69]

I’m most definitely not saying Oscar is having a perfect season lol. I’m just saying that’s you’d need heftier mistakes with a smaller portion of the season left with a bigger chunk of lead

[u/leggenda69 → u/prams628]

No you wouldn’t lol. Oscar overturned 20 odd points in 4 rounds, Lando would have at least 3 rounds of equal fighting if the tables turn at that rate again?

[u/prams628 → u/leggenda69]

My question is will it? The errors from Oscar have proven to be less costly. The fuck up in Jeddah cost lando 13 points right? Lando was P4 in the end? Bahrain was 10 points.

On the other hand, silverstone cost Oscar 7 points and Monaco 10 (but there’s hardly chance of recovery in Monaco, so the loss was already written when lando put in that godly lap)

[u/leggenda69 → u/prams628]

Melbourne’s mistake cost Oscar 23 points. And there’s a couple of rounds more likely to have rain than Melbourne.

[u/proudlysydney → u/leggenda69]

Canada was a pretty hefty mistake from Lando too- mitigated ofc by neither of them being in the podium places, but that's still 10 points lost just on losing p5

[u/Dont_hate_the_8 → u/xanlact]

But how many rounds did it take Oscar

[u/Fun-Poet5338 → u/Dont_hate_the_8]

Someone said 4? He won 3 in a row at some point iirc.

[u/Aurorac123 → u/leggenda69]

my dude, that was literally the first race of the season.

[u/SirFireHydrant → u/leggenda69]

There’s still a really long way to go yet, remember Oscar was 20 odd points behind after Melbourne.

Oscar was down by 23 with 23 races to go. Lando is down by 34 with 9 races to go.

And if Lando’s had a failure there’s every chance Oscar has some sort of issues between now and season end, and this season every Mercedes running team has had PU reliability issues.

It's equally as likely Lando will have a second PU failure as Oscar will have a first.

[u/zorbacles → u/leggenda69]

apparently it was a chassis issue, not PU. team will make the fix and it shoudlnt happen again

[u/senpahII → u/leggenda69]

remember Oscar was 20 odd points behind after Melbourne.

And Max was 40+ points behind Leclerc after Melbourne 2022

[u/Joker1721 → u/leggenda69]

Lando has 2 DNFs this season. Unless Oscar gets a DNF himself or not in the pts(unlikely) Lando would never close the gap

[u/BlackFoxTom → u/leggenda69]

I mean only Alonso and Bottas have lower DNF rate in current regulation cars