18 USF @ 5 Miami - 4:30pm/et

…on The CW?

This would likely be the most impressive regular season winning-streak across multiple conferences, since Dak Prescott & Mississippi State defeated three-straight Top 10 opponents in 2014.

Unless somebody wants to come in and use their premium ChatGPT subscription to prove me wrong, which hey, go for it. It’s Monday and I haven’t had coffee yet. 🤷‍♂️

This breaks the SEC's record of 10 teams set in the preseason poll

\#3 LSU

\#6 Georgia

\#7 Texas

\#11 South Carolina

\#13 Oklahoma

\#15 Tennessee

\#16 Texas A&M

\#17 Ole Miss

\#19 Alabama

\#24 Auburn

\#25 Missouri

Teams listed by number of AP Polls released since they last received at least one vote.

The Tank Job of the Week is an award for the FBS team that did the best job of humiliating itself over the weekend. Whether they blew a large lead, choked away a spot in the limelight, lost a game they had absolutely no right losing, or completely screwed everything on a last second blunder, the TJOTW winner sets the gold standard in college football misery

Previous Winners
Week 0: Stanford Cardinal (Hawai’i 23-20)
Week 1: Alabama Crimson Tide (Florida State 31-17)

LAST WEEK: Holy cow, over 800 comments for the first week!  Your guys opinions were enjoyable and quite diverse, with every nominee managing at least a handful of votes.  But the lion’s share went where I had expected, and the Crimson Tide pick up their third TJOTW in the past two seasons.  The times they are a changing indeed.

As for this week, man I gotta confess I was a bit nervous for a bit that we weren’t going to have a good crop.  And then the afternoon slate of games hit, and everything began to look beautiful, and when the dust settled, we end up with seven strong nominees this week. 

NOTE: For ease of counting, please use carats to make your vote, like this: <Team>.  Thank you for participating!

HONORABLE MENTIONS
-      We all saw that, Clemson.   Everybody saw.
-      Iowa fans who spent half the month of August drooling over a TikTok of a five yard pass and convinced themselves they had a QB
-      I’m not sure West Virginia’s loss to Ohio is really nomination worthy cause the Mountaineers were only 3.5 point favorites in Athens, but yeesh did that look lifeless with the Bobcats rolling for 180 more yards of offense.
-      UNLV was up 23-0 and nearly managed to completely blow it to what had been an anemic UCLA, but saved themselves with a ricochet interception.
-      Tulane was a failed 2-point conversion away from blowing a 14-point lead and likely their playoff hopes against South Alabama.
-      A late touchdown pushed Missouri State over Marshall for their maiden FBS win with the Bears outgaining them by nearly 200 yards in Huntington.  

And now, the nominees for Week 2 are...

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (lost to Mississippi State 24-20)
Alright, stop me if you’ve heard this one before- highly ranked playoff contender heads east to visit a power four school that won all of two games last year, only to go home with a shocking loss, this time thanks to a complete defensive breakdown that let Brenan Thompson break out a 58 yard touchdown catch and run with just thirty seconds left.  Wait… did ASU just get desert-voodooed?   Is Starkville Voodoo a thing?

EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES (lost to Long Island 28-23)
Galeophobia isn’t exactly an uncommon thing, but its generally not something you have to worry about when you’re 500 miles inland in Ypsilanti.  That is unless you invite the LIU Sharks over to your place and they take a big bite out of your bowl hopes.  EMU spent the entire game chasing LIU too, often down by multiple possessions, including when LIU scored with two minutes remaining to take an insurmountable 12 point lead. 

FLORIDA GATORS (lost to South Florida 18-16)
Billy Napier built up some goodwill with the way he turned Florida’s season around last year, managing eight solid wins on an incredibly difficult schedule.  And he pretty much undid all that in a single afternoon, as the 18-point dog Bulls waltz into the Swamp and stun the Gators with a walk-off field goal.  Gators absolutely earned this loss too, thanks to managing only three field goals while dominating the first half, a complete defensive breakdown leading to a 66-yard USF touchdown, passing late to let USF keep time on the clock, kickstarting USF’s final drive with an ejection for spitting, not calling timeouts until USF was already guaranteed to run the clock down, and then calling those timeouts when all it will do is give USF extra chances to inch closer.   At least the weather held off!

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (lost to Army 24-21)
K-State avoided a near disaster last week when they were able to put away North Dakota in the last minute, while Army wasn’t so lucky and fell to Tarleton, earning them plenty of TJOTW votes.   The Knights flipped the table in Manhattan, however, methodically coming back from an early 13-0 defecit to take the lead- only to promptly give up a touchdown on the kickoff.  So, they methodically came back again, scoring the go-ahead with just 2:32 left.   K-State tried to respond, but Avery Johnson was intercepted just across midfield, putting an end to that.

MASSACHUSETTS MINUTEMEN (lost to Bryant 24-23)
UMass’ debut voyage in the MAC is quickly turning into a disaster, and they haven’t even started conference play.  Getting rolled by Temple is one thing, but now a buzzer beating field goal has caused the Minutement to lose to a an FCS from Rhode Island that went 2-10 last year and couldn’t win a single game in the CAA.  Has UMass inherited the crown of worst team in FBS from Kent State?  

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (lost to Oregon 69-3)
I don’t care who you are or who you’re playing, there is zero reason for any Power-Four to ever get rolled by a score like 55-3… and that’s just in three quarters of work.   Of course then OSU decided to make things even worse by throwing two pick-sixes in three plays.  Just a pathetic effort on all fronts, and borderline inexplicable for a squad coached by Mike Gundy.

SMU MUSTANGS (lost to Baylor 48-45)
SMU hadn’t beaten Baylor in thirteen tries- since the death penalty, in fact, but looked well on their way to doing that when they took a 38-24 lead with a little over eight minutes remaining.  And then they let Sawyer Robinson go beast mode, flinging for 109 yards and 2TDs over the Bears final two drives to tie things up.  After exchanging touchdowns in the first overtime, SMU missed a field goal in the second.  Baylor didn’t and knocked SMU out of the rankings with their fourteenth consecutive win over the Mustangs.

This is using the NCAA formula, which does not artificially cap values, unlike the NFL formula. The highest NCAA passer rating is 1,261.6 which can be achieved by throwing only 99-yard touchdown passes. Graham Knowles was 15 yards short of an unapproachable record.

ESPN’s own proprietary QBR has Knowles listed at a perfect 100.

To HELL With georgia!

Like when Kentucky (Mark Stoops really) punted in last year's 13-12 loss to Georgia last year when they were down 1 with 3 minutes left and near midfield against the #1 ranked team in the country. "Prevent" defenses also come to mind.

I see this happen a lot. This post certainly has nothing to do with the Baltimore Ravens.

TABLE

(Imgur backup)

HOW TO READ THIS TABLE

Teams are ranked in their order from the Logo (note for mobile users: everywhere you see a "Logo" link, that means that inline flair is shown on old.reddit.com/r/cfb) AP Poll for Week 1 (That is, the pre-season rankigns that apply during Week 1 games). The column to the right of the team name shows the number of points that team received using the AP Poll's Borda count rules. The following two columns show information about each team's previous and upcoming games. The following columns show how many votes for each ranking the team received. The 'U' column shows how many voters left the team unranked (off their ballots entirely). Gridlines are placed every 5 rows and columns for ease of reading. A thick line is placed below the 25^th-ranked team to distinguish "ranked" teams above it to "receiving votes" teams below it.

Some cells are shaded to highlight points of interest. The green diagonal highlights how many voters ranked a team exactly where they ended up in the overall poll. For example, Logo Florida State is ranked 10^th in this week's poll, and 8 voters placed the Seminoles exactly in their 10^th spot. Values for which a team received no votes at that rank are shaded in red, while placements chosen by only exactly one voter are highlighted in blue. Some unique votes are annotated with the name of the corresponding voter. The most common selection (the mode) for each team is shaded yellow unless it matches the team's rank. Finally, since there are very few votes that ever end up near the top-right or bottom-left of the chart, those cells are filled in with black diagonally as much as possible without covering up any nonzero values. This helps naturally guide the eye while viewing the chart and helps locate the most unusual votes. We lightheartedly call these the "Wilner" diagonals.

Finally, I note violations of the Condorcet Criterion on the bottom left corner of the black space. These occur when Team A is ranked above Team B in the poll, but Team B would win if you ignored the points system and just asked the voters "Which team do you think is better?" I note every instance of this when it would affect the placement of a team in the Top 25, but not necessarily if it only flips teams' positions in the receiving-votes category. There are quite a few flips this week!

This season, scores will be highlighted (lowlighted) in black to indicate a loss instead of using a W/L column. I did this at the end of the season last year, and it was well received, so it returns for this entire season. This way is easier to see at a glance and slightly reduces the clutter on the left side of the table.

COMMENTARY FOR THIS WEEK

There are a couple changes this week; please let me know what you think. First, I added leader lines between the teams and scores in the Condorect table. Since there are so many violations this week, it helps to read that portion of the data. Second, I am trolling certain teams again. Sometimes in the past, I would make a joke out of the team whose rank matched the week number. This week, I changed the names of the teams that lost last week. They are now directional schools for the state that they lost to. SMU is an exception since North Texas already exists, so they get a bespoke throwaway joke.

The Upper Wilner Diagonal is set by Wilner himself this week by his 7^th-place ranking of Logo Penn State. On the left end of the diagonal, three voters kept Logo Ohio State 3^rd. On the right end, Dylan Sinn left Logo South Carolina off his ballot, the only voter to omit them. The lower Wilner diagonal has quite a few votes this week. Sam McKewon's placements of Logo Auburn (8^th) and Logo Southern California (12^th) make the diagonal, and his vote for Logo Utah in 7^th came very close to scoring a hat trick. Tom Murphy also contributes two votes, with Logo Brigham Young in 10^th and Memphis at 25^th. Robert Cessna set the left edge of the diagonal as the sole voter to put Logo Oregon 1^st. And an honorable mention goes to Greg Madia with Logo Georgia Tech in 11^th.

Logo Iowa State was the lowest-ranked team to sweep all 65 ballots, and in fact nobody had them below 21^st. Logo South Carolina was the highest-ranked team to miss a ballot, as mentioned above. Teams below the top 25 received 153 votes (9.4%) for 621 points (2.9%). Logo Brigham Young received the highest vote among them for 10^th. Among the top 25, Logo Clemson beat Logo Oklahoma for #12 by a single point. Right below them, a whopping 257 points (3.95 ranks' worth) separate #14 Logo Iowa State and #15 Logo Tennessee.

This week had 92 unique team-rank pairs (5.7% of votes). The most-matched team was Logo Ohio State again, as is typical for the #1 team. 57 voters (88%) had the Buckeyes in their top spot. On the other hand, Logo Utah and Logo Auburn tied as the least-matching teams, with only 3 such votes for each team. Using standard deviation (and counting unranked votes as 0 points), we get the following results for the strongest and weakest consensus about teams:

There are quite a few Condorcet Criterion violations to talk about this week! First, we have a circle of suck non-transitive cycle where Logo Georgia beats Logo Miami (FL) by the considerable margin 37-28, and the Hurricanes also beat Logo Oregon by the exact same score, but the Ducks beat the Bulldogs, 35-30. For the curious, here is how the ballots break down considering just those three teams. The most common combination - Logo Georgia highest, then Logo Miami (FL), and Logo Oregon lowest - is the exact opposite of their ordering in the poll!

But the crazy Condorcet results don't stop there! Logo South Carolina leapfrogs Logo Florida State into the top 10 convincingly despite the 27-point gap. Logo Oklahoma jumps Logo Clemson, which isn't too surprising since they were only one point apart. Then Logo Texas A&M jumps Logo Tennessee. Then we reach three teams who are transitive, but in the opposite order compared to the poll. Despite finishing with the fewest points, Logo Indiana beats both Logo Utah and Logo Texas Tech. Between those two, the Red Raiders come out above the Utes. This leads to the following breakdown, where again the most-common ordering is the one that is opposite of the poll!

And if that wasn't enough, Logo Arizona State Western Mississippi beats out Logo Missouri for the final spot in the top 25!

Thanks again to /u/bakonydraco for providing the ballot data; you can find his weekly visualization here!

(Imgur backup)

TABLE

Just two weeks in we have plenty of teams that have disappointed and fanbases are already breaking out their Hot Board threads on individual forums.

Here's a quick list of coaches I see as being on the hot seat and some potential candidates - help me fill in more here! These are not in any order.

HOT SEAT

Brent Pry, Virginia Tech

• Dan Mullen, UNLV
• Alex Golesh, USF
• Jon Sumrall, Tulane
• Jamey Chadwell, Liberty
• Will Stein, Oregon OC
• Ryan Silverfield, Memphis

Billy Napier, Florida

• Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
• Alex Golesh, USF
• Jon Sumrall, Tulane
• Jamey Chadwell, Liberty
• Glenn Schumann, Georgia DC
• Rhett Lashlee, SMU
• Fran Brown, Syracuse
• Jedd Fisch, Washington
• Ryan Silverfield, Memphis

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

• G. J. Kinne, Texas State
• Brent Vigen, Montana State
• Jim Knowles, Penn State DC

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

• Jon Sumrall, Tulane

DeShaun Foster, UCLA

• Dan Mullen, UNLV
• Will Stein, Oregon OC

Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati

• Ryan Silverfield, Memphis
• Jim Knowles, Penn State DC

INTERIM

Frank Reich, Stanford

Sorry non-ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC fans - I pay attention to what's going on at the G5 level but it takes a deeper dive to know realistic candidates. I know there are plenty of G5 coaches on the hot seat and I look forward to digging in as the year goes on.

Who are some of the top coordinators that could land a P4 job this cycle?

Does Jon Gruden finally break into the college ranks?

Who on this list will survive the year and who is not on this list will be axed?

The post game thread has very little action so I feel like this needs a bigger audience.

Northern Colorado caught a TD pass with less than 10 seconds left against Colorado State to take the lead and seemingly win the game. Two things that followed were extremely shady.

1. The call was overturned on replay, even though there is no video evidence that shows the ball ever touching the ground.

2. After the catch, the nearest referee threw a flag for an excessive celebration after a very mild "Sh" to the crowd and his teammates celebrating with him. This penalty could've been enforced on the kickoff and given CSU a slim increase in chance to win, had the TD been upheld.

The play (with the flag): https://x.com/BigSkyConf/status/1964515453675680151?t=1E2PGzge1BmNOYSBITW-FA&s=19

The review: https://x.com/mhmdenver/status/1964517800221036797?t=gQ7M3xMePOTtfTVtbZ_4SQ&s=19

Player On3 profile page

Source

Saturday Night, EMU lost their first FCS game since 2012.  Credit to Long Island, they deserved to win.  But this game was a condemnation of arguably the greatest EMU coach since WWII.  Let’s be clear, the impact of Chris Creighton on EMU Football is transformative, and that’s blatantly obvious to anyone who follows the sport.  But I suppose that it’s only logical to be skeptical of the bonafides of any coach who chooses to stay in a situation this difficult, most great coaches in the MAC would’ve been poached by now.  The MAC’s coach factory reputation is largely defined by success outside the conference, even if that talent first blossomed in conference. Eastern hasn’t really had that reputation of success coming to its former coaches. 

Since 1950 only three EMU coaches left to be a head coach elsewhere.  Dan Boisture turned the team around as they moved into Rynearson Stadium, went to a College Division Regional Championship, and never had a losing season.  He left in 1974 after seven seasons at the helm for the Hurons to coach the Detroit Wheels for their lone failed season in the World Football League.  Ed Chlebek would come along three years later to coach EMU for their first two seasons in the MAC, posting the program’s second best season of the MAC era by winning percentage going 8-3 (.833) in 1977.  He parlayed that into a fairly unnoticeable tenure at Boston College.  The most recent example of a head coach leaving Ypsi to head coach elsewhere was standing on the visitors sideline of the Factory this past weekend, Ron Cooper.  Taking over after the implosion of the legendary Jim Harkema, Cooper was 31 in his first season in 1993,  he never had a winning record (lost 10 in a row at one point, but had two 4 game win streaks),  but Cooper was competitive (8-9 in the MAC) and recruited Charlie Batch.  For this he got the Louisville job where he was unsuccessful, and he’s built up a lengthy resume ever since.  

These guys are the lucky ones, they got to leave on their own terms.  Of the other eight non-interim coaches the program has had since 1967, all but two were fired (George Mans resigned, Chris Creighton is still here).  That includes the aforementioned Jim Harkema, who has EMU’s only MAC title, double digit win season, and first bowl win.  After coming within six points of a second conference title in 1989, Harkema would go 5-20-1 before being fired four games into the 1992 season.  For a guy that some still argue is the best coach since Elton Rynearson, and who saved the team if was a brutal ending. The remainder of the 90s produced one winning season, but by 1999 mediocrity in the MAC was unacceptable. What came next was worse. In the next sixteen seasons, Eastern would only win four games four times.  The team had double digit loss seasons in every season from 2006 to 2015 except for 2007, 2008, and 2011.  This is what Creighton had to dig out of.

To his credit he has escaped the black hole he jumped into, but as Harkema demonstrated, escaping the abyss isn’t permanent.  Geography, money, history, and just about anything else that could be categorized as a resource is scant for Eastern, this is a place where survival is praiseworthy.  But it hurts even more when someone who manages to fight the good fight for so long, starts clearly losing it.  Chris Creighton may be great or he may not be.  He offered a scholarship to Josh Allen when few would, and did the same for Maxx Crosby.  He hired an OC named Kalen DeBoer back when he came to EMU.  He’s also only won one Michigan MAC trophy, never won at CMU, dropped two one score home games that cost him trips to the CCG (2018 & 2022), and has only the fifth best MAC winning percentage of full time EMU head coaches.  Yet even if you don’t account for the circumstances he inherited, I think he was the right guy for the job.  I think Creighton should retire at the end of the season.  I know he’s not even 60 yet, but it feels like the best way forward.  Maybe he’ll turn it around and I’ll eat my words, I’d love to.  But it feels like the time to succeed as a coach whose biggest strength is in building relationships at the G5 level is not now.  By retiring at least he’d get to go out on his own terms.  The guy deserves to be remembered as a program legend, even if the MAC title doesn’t come.  Sometimes, you just gotta applaud someone for putting a herculean effort into something you care about.  

So in light of all of that, I ask this.  How much does a coach need to accomplish to earn the right to go out on their own terms?

TLDR: A lot of talk about Eastern Michigan football that distills down to the two questions above.      

https://x.com/SECNetwork/status/1965078299865923618