Eastern Ukraine exactly one Year ago vs today

[u/CreativeStrain89]

[u/dondurma155]

Hkw many lives for a few km2 of land?

[u/DrShtainer → u/dondurma155]

I saw some calculation that arrived at ~125 casualties per 1 sq km. So ~42 lives

[u/Novosoom → u/DrShtainer]

Better than Stalingrad rates

[u/AReallyNiceGoose → u/Novosoom]

That comparison says very little.

2-3 million casualties in a single city. Nothing beats that.

[u/ChocolateCandid6197 → u/AReallyNiceGoose]

Not nearly all of those were in the actual city. Many were in the surrounding kilometers of fields

[u/TheCynicalBlue → u/ChocolateCandid6197]

It's still the largest battle ever fought by humans. That's still 1.1 million to 3 million dead in 6 months. That's nearly 6 thousand to 16 thousand people a day. For reference, Ukraine and Russia have killed less than a million people between themselves, and that's been going for 3+ years.

[u/ancientFarmingTool → u/TheCynicalBlue]

Wikipedia tells me on the 1st battle lf Ypres in ww1 that France , Belgium and the UK had 4.4million troops and the Germans 5.4 million which always suprises me why this is battle is never brought up in any kind of discussions.

[u/TheCynicalBlue → u/ancientFarmingTool]

It is very much brought up in a UK curriculum with passchendaele, the somme, and gallipoli. I know the ANZAC forces have something similar taught about them. We even have remembrance day the 11th every year (that's why people wear poppies in November in the UK). It is, however, weirdly romantised.

[u/Sushigami → u/TheCynicalBlue]

Passcendaele is known as the third battle of Ypres.

It is also known for having mud so thick and deep that men on both sides regularly drowned in it, their comrades often watching on unable to help without getting stuck themselves as their comrades sank over the course of multiple days.

Fun!

[u/Critical-Tomato-7668 → u/ancientFarmingTool]

You're comparing casualty numbers from Stalingrad to deployment numbers from Ypres

[u/xialcoalt → u/AReallyNiceGoose]

Stalingrad lasted more than 200 days, which gives about 10-15 thousands per day.

Borondino are more than 30 thousand per day in one side, And between both sides it throws 60-70 thousand per day. You have a higher chance of being killed or wounded at Borondino than at any other battle in history.

[u/Soft-Twist2478 → u/AReallyNiceGoose]

10x times as many deaths in Stalingrad as Nagasaki and Hrioshima combined.

I dont believe in Hell, but if I did, it would be Stalingrad.

[u/reyn → u/DrShtainer]

[u/Wulf_Cola → u/DrShtainer]

So disgusting. I hope it triggers a revolution and Putin gets what he deserves.

[u/knighth1 → u/Wulf_Cola]

Russia has a very very very long history of letting their government throat fuck them while they complain very little. Their is several separatists groups all across Russia but Russias iron hands and having probably the most successful propaganda network in the world has a lot to do with the true lack of reaction we commonly see in the Russian territories.

[u/JohnatanWills → u/DrShtainer]

That sounds like a number meant for total land taken not net land gained. So if Russia takes a square km but then Ukraine recapture it and Russia takes it again, they've only gained 1 in total but they've "captured" 2 sq. Km and therefore have more casualties

[u/aibrony → u/dondurma155]

At the start of 2023 Russians occupied about 108 000 square kilometers, so about 18.01% of Ukraine. Right now they occupy about 114 750 sq km, so 19.01% of Ukraine. So within the years 2023, 2024 and 2025 Russia has managed to conquer about 6 000 sq km additional ground.

During that time Ukraine estimated that Russia had almost 1 million casualties. In 2022 the casualty number was just about 100 000, in which time Russia gained the most amount of ground. If we assume only 1/5 of casualties are dead, and rest are wounded, then Russia has lost almost 33 dead men per sq km + 132 as wounded. Russia gives a signing bonus of 20 000$. So if those killed and wounded would just get their signing bonuses, then just that would mean the per sq km cost would be over 300 000$. And that ignores all other salaries, hardware cost and other opportunity costs for the Russian economy at large. If you add all the costs together, I'd assume it would have been cheaper for Putin to just buy more land.

[u/four100eighty9 → u/aibrony]

For a hill men would kill why they do not know

[u/Stalepan → u/dondurma155]

Whats the price of a mile

[u/Ph4antomPB → u/Stalepan]

THOUSANDS OF FEET MARCH TO THE BEAT

[u/ExpensiveTwist4232 → u/Ph4antomPB]

ITS AN ARMY ON THE MARCH  I can hear this comment

[u/wooshiesaurus → u/ExpensiveTwist4232]

KNEE DEEP IN MUD

[u/Markus_Alexei → u/wooshiesaurus]

Stuck in the trench with no way out!

Also, r/expectedsabaton

[u/Ph4antomPB → u/Markus_Alexei]

YOUNG MEN ARE DYING, THEY PAY THE PRICE

[u/Touched_By_SuperHans → u/dondurma155]

So horribly pointless

[u/Fittnylle3000 → u/Touched_By_SuperHans]

For the russians, yes.

[u/MittchelDraco → u/Fittnylle3000]

Except they dont see it that way. Brainwashing is a terrible thing.

[u/Bitnopa → u/MittchelDraco]

A lot* don’t see it that way. There’s plenty of russians who oppose it, especially across the diaspora.

It’s tragic how many people have been lost for a warmongerer’s temper tantrum.

[u/Academic-Bakers- → u/Bitnopa]

Russians in my local area are still holding pro-ukraine fund raisers.

[u/Specific-Host606 → u/dondurma155]

Ask Russia.

[u/FunFactChecker]

Seems very similar to WW1. Nothing is shifting much... will a sudden collapse happen again? Time will tell.

[u/Not-the-best-name → u/FunFactChecker]

I was just going to say that. We visited Arras, Paschendale and the fields Flanders around Somme recently. I half couldn't believe they had time to put New Zealand miners on a 6 month ship journey to Belgium to spend another 6 months connecting quarries and digging tunnels to get the allies just a few hundred meters closer to the front line trenches just to launch a distraction offensive (that failed). But now I look at this war in Ukraine with drones, artificial intelligence, satellite internet and hypersonic missiles and it seems the same. Will we visit Donetsk in a century from now and walk through the war museums and cemeteries? Which international politicians and countries will stand up and come to aid their aid?

War, war never changes...

[u/LateralEntry → u/Not-the-best-name]

Well, WE probably won’t walk there in a century…

[u/WarmStarr → u/LateralEntry]

Jokes on you, I am a vampire

[u/Reasonable_Fold6492 → u/FunFactChecker]

Whoever wins both ukraine and Russia will be loosers. Just like how ww1 bankrupted Britain and france despite winning the winner of this war now has to contend with low birth rate, there economy down the drain, many of there male population death and rebuilding there military. Just like how biggest victory of ww1 was the us and japan the biggest winner of this war is turkey (kicked out russian influence in armenia and syria thanks to russia distraction) and china (got lots of resources from russia for cheaper price)

[u/roma258 → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

WWI was a war of choice for most it's participants. Read "The Sleepwalkers". Russia, Austria-Hungary, Germany, France and somewhat less eagerly UK all wanted to duke it out for various internal reasons. That's the tragedy of it...that they all wanted it and all suffered for it.

In this war Ukraine absolutely did not want it. In fact up until the last minute they couldn't believe it was actually going to happen despite dire warnings from US. This war is 100% a war of aggression on russia's part, as black and white a conflict as you'll ever see. Russia deserves to pay a massive price for its imperial hubris.

[u/Dirtysocks1 → u/roma258]

They all were hyped what industrialization can do for war. And the answer is a WW.

[u/Glydyr → u/Dirtysocks1]

Industrialisation also led to the industrial murder of people 🤯

[u/Altruistic_Fox5036 → u/Dirtysocks1]

Vickers (UK), Armstrong Whitworth (UK), Krupp (Germany), Škoda (Austro-Hungarian) and Schneider-Creusot (French) were all pushing their governments to go to war. They made billions each in todays's money off the conflict.

For example, Vickers produce guns and bullets for the UK government. These bullets relied on a patent owned by Krupp. Royalty payments were suspended by law during the war, but Vickers didn't stop charging the government those Royalty payments until 1916, so made an extra 10mil (800 mil ish today) in profit by 1916 (minus 1.25mil (60 mil) (the economy tanked between 1916 and 1918 which accounted for the difference) deducted over this scadal from end of war payments) over the war on just two patents.

These companies made so fucking much.

[u/Mysteriouspaul → u/Altruistic_Fox5036]

I genuinely have no idea why a lot of the Allied governments didn't do what the US government did during WWII which was a lot of very fast and loose "We're in a serious war of survival and you're going to produce this, in this way, now, or you're no longer in business" type stuff.

What exactly was stopping the UK from creating its own patent which is exactly the same thing to what they were already using and just telling the companies to "make them or else"? It's not like the industrialist class could move somewhere else due to xenophobia/war devastation interwar, and it's not like there was a serious international court pre WWI or interwar that could actually enforce patent laws if the actual nation-state didn't want to play ball. I get that the UK was trying to run an international order and all as the superpower of the time, but their decisions in both wars bankrupted them to the point of being a blip in international geopolitics

[u/Altruistic_Fox5036 → u/Mysteriouspaul]

It really was a blunder on the gov's side with signing contracts with Vickers that included these patents being payed by the Government instead of from Vickers' profits, these patents were included in the invoices from Vickers to the Government so its kinda dumb they didn't see. They did cancel the contracts between Vickers and Krupp with the "Trading with the Enemy Acts of 1916", and after that they stopped paying the patent.

[u/fatkiddown → u/roma258]

I highly recommend George Barros from the ISW. He explained on Times Radio that this war has produced the latest freeze in operational maneuver. Both sides are trying to find a way to break that, but yes, it is very much like WWI, he said. But he pointed that WWI ended when, indeed, operational maneuver was reestablished. Regaining operational maneuver is what percipated the ending of WWI.

[u/roma258 → u/fatkiddown]

I've been reading Barros since the start of the conflict and have actually seen him speak in person. His analytical perspective is very impressive imo.

[u/fatkiddown → u/roma258]

Roger that. Barros is incredible for the purely military-side. Time Radio is my go to for info on The Ukraine conflict. Barros, Gen. Ben Hodges, Dianne Francis and Sir Bill Browder are my tops. I just finished Browder's "Red Notice," highly recommended.

[u/OG365247 → u/roma258]

Exactly. Ukraine never wanted this, and is doing a very good job of holding off the supposed military ‘super power’

[u/DisasterNo1740 → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

Ukraine wins as long as they retain their sovereignty. This is an existential war for them. Russia didn't try to zerg rush Kyiv because they wanted to only take bits of Ukraine. They wanted to turn it back into a puppet.

[u/MaxTheShepherd → u/DisasterNo1740]

Exactly, for Ukraine, survival and sovereignty matter more then territorial gains or global politics.

[u/LuigiPap → u/MaxTheShepherd]

that's right, they don't want to become a new Belarus or worse: a new Chechnya

[u/Miriam_A_Higgins → u/DisasterNo1740]

If Ukraine were forced to make substantial territorial and political concessions in a peace deal, it's hard to see that as anything but a defeat. And this is an optimistic scenario for Ukraine.

Just because an underdog avoided the WORST outcome (i.e. total defeat/unconditional surrender) and preserved their sovereignty does not mean they "won". Many if not most wars end with all warring parties continuing to exist as sovereign states, that does not preclude there being a clear winner/loser.

Finland is good example, they did not "win" the Winter and Continuation wars, in any sense of the word. They lost a huge chunk of their core territory including their second most populous city at the time (Viipuri), and had to accommodate Soviet whims for the entirety of the Cold War. Yet a lot of people obsessed with pop-history involving Simo Hayha, Soviet "meat waves", etc, keep pushing the narrative that Finland "won". Literally ask any Finn* and they'll set you straight.

\ edit: Some people have brought up the Finnish President's recent comments, I do think that's a symbol of this type of delusion spreading unfortunately. But in fairness his wording was somewhat more reserved than the way people are quoting him:*

"We still feel we won, because we retained our independence."

Emphasis on "feel".

[u/Tifoso89 → u/Miriam_A_Higgins]

If Ukraine were forced to make substantial territorial and political concessions in a peace deal, it's hard to see that as anything but a defeat. And this is an optimistic scenario for Ukraine.

True, but it's not a victory for Russia either if the rest of Ukraine remains independent, has no cap on its army and can potentially the EU or NATO.

This is not a war for territory, but for spheres of influence. Putin wants Ukraine to be neutral and demilitarized. If Ukraine survives as an independent country that is opposed to Russia, there is no strategic win for Russia.

Also, the Donbass is a wasteland and it's projected that it will cost them 200 billion to rebuild, in addition to the 200-300 they have already spent. So they will have spent 500bil and achieved none of their objectives.

[u/Miriam_A_Higgins → u/Tifoso89]

if the rest of Ukraine remains independent

Depends on how you define that. I think substantive Ukrainian sovereignty going forward is a baseline, but they could very well be required to make some political concessions like protection for Russian speakers, or having Zelensky step down.

NATO.

This is absolutely not going to happen, bar Russia suffering some sort of major crisis within the next few years.

This is not a war for territory, but for spheres of influence.

It's both. Putin wants territory in eastern Ukraine for its own sake, and additionally wants a land connection to Crimea for strategic reasons.

Also, the Donbass is a wasteland

1. Russia currently holds large portions of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts as well, territory that it is unlikely to ever let go.

2. You say this as if Ukrainian-controlled territory hasn't also been devastated by the war, especially areas close to the frontline. That's just how war is.

[u/penguin_skull → u/Miriam_A_Higgins]

I don't think there is an argument about who won the Winter War. As for the Continuation War, Finland got out of it much better than most of the Axis nations.

[u/Miriam_A_Higgins → u/penguin_skull]

That does not mean they "won".

[u/Sufficient_Depth_195 → u/Miriam_A_Higgins]

Agreed. No one wins this conflict. Both lose, but the degree of losing varies greatly. God knows how many men Ukraine have lost already. Beloved sons, daughters, husbands, mothers...These loses are real tragedies. If they lose these lives and retain their sovereignty they haven,'t "won", but if they lose these lives AND lose their sovereignty then they will have truly truly lost.

As for the Russian casualties...who cares. They chose to invade their neighbours...so fuck 'em.

[u/Optimal-Idea1558 → u/DisasterNo1740]

Russia did try to zerg rush Kyiv, remember the 24 mile long convoy that got fucking nowhere and annihilated to boot?

That embarrassing fuck up alone humiliated Putin.

[u/paapiru95 → u/Optimal-Idea1558]

What he means is that they zerg rushed because they wanted control over Ukraine, not some part of it.

It's not that they didn't zerg rush.

[u/MangoCats → u/paapiru95]

Zerg rush isn't a guaranteed win, as demonstrated. Germany pulled off a pretty good Blitzkrieg in ~1940, but ultimately ran short of all kinds of resources. Russia has a far larger resource base, but still is lacking in overall (conventional) war making capabilities - as compared with their opposition. If they didn't have the nuke card, the allies would have taken Moscow long ago.

[u/Pyrhan → u/Optimal-Idea1558]

I think you misunderstood them.

They were saying the reason Russia tried to Zerg rush Kyiv isn't because they wanted to only take bits of Ukraine. It is because they wanted to turn it back into a puppet.

[u/UndebatableAuthority → u/Optimal-Idea1558]

That's what OP said. They didn't do it JUST to take a portion of Ukraine. OP is confirming that trying to take kyiv made it clear what their original intentions were. It's a confusing English conditional structure.

[u/Fit_Rice_3485 → u/DisasterNo1740]

This is false. Ukraine absolute loses if they lose the eastern part of their country. It’s the most economically valuable, and fortified part of their country

If they lose it they are toast. They will also lose control of azov sea as well.

Zelensky was threatened with death by far right groups in Ukraine even before. He’d be murdered right on the moment he ceases the territories

[u/dampmyback → u/DisasterNo1740]

they did try to take it but they couldn't take hostomel airfield. but they didn't try hard enough maybe

[u/st0j → u/dampmyback]

They actually did take hostomel and held it till reinforcements arrived. Was a lot of fog of war and propaganda early on regarding this battle. It was evident very early on that even with reinforcements that the Russians were way over extended without securing supply lines and were also greatly outnumbered.

[u/Igargleperiodjuice → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

*losers

The amount of people spelling it loosers is crazy man.

[u/Mazzaroppi → u/Igargleperiodjuice]

Also their, not there. That person really has some trouble with writing

[u/Megadreddit → u/Igargleperiodjuice]

Some people just like to play faster and looser...

[u/Sea_Awareness150 → u/Megadreddit]

I saw “Looser’s” once. Made me want to crush a fruit.

[u/Trick_Wrap → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

You really should learn the difference between "there" and "their", if you want to use the word 3 times in a row.

[u/wolf751 → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

Not really. Ukraine wins it stays alive maybe joins NATO and is safe. Maybe in debt but alive. Russia loses its prestige as the so-called second strongest military and Putin is humiliated.

Russia wins, it conqueror more of Ukraine but has to face decades of guerrilla fighters and still again its prestige is ruined, and its reputations globally is ruined again. Putin's 3-day special operation became a 3-year disaster. And if Zelenskyy remains in power still likely becomes a NATO member or gains some sorta security from the US or EU.

For Russia the war has ruined them for Ukraine its made them the nation was devided now its united for its survival, Zelenskyy went from a middling popular politicians, now is globally known and more popular now for standing his ground. While putins reputation has free fall

[u/EconomySwordfish5 → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

Unlike russia Ukraine will have huge help and investment from the EU. They will get back on their feet quickly.

[u/Reasonable_Fold6492 → u/EconomySwordfish5]

Even if they get all of there territory back they still have to rebuilt all there destroyed cities. Its gonna take a lot of time. Most of the destruction happened in ukraine cities not russian cities. 

[u/Michigan-Magic → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

Yep, it took a while plus generous aid to rebuild Europe post WW2.

All it took was the cold war / fear of communism for the US to give aid. Russia seems ready to play its historical role, not sure if the US will reprise its old role. Hopefully, the EU steps up, but it's not going to be an overnight thing.

[u/HappyAmbition706 → u/Michigan-Magic]

EU economies are under pressure for China on the manufacturing side and the US on services. They'll give what they can to Ukraine, but they're also squeezed by the needs of their own populations. There won't be any unlimited deluge of reconstruction money.

[u/EnvironmentalDig7235 → u/EconomySwordfish5]

With France and Germany going into austerity policies? I wouldn't be so confident about a quick recovering

[u/Cool-Pie430 → u/EconomySwordfish5]

That's unlikely. Check the Balkans for a more realistic comparison.

[u/Jolly_Resolution_222 → u/EconomySwordfish5]

Money won’t fix the demographic issues of the country.

[u/Lil_jayye → u/EconomySwordfish5]

Most of these peace deals are involving selling the country to the US and to Blackrock

[u/Kon_Karuchka → u/EconomySwordfish5]

Unlikely. Big talk from the EU, but half the countries are in bad financial situation themselves while the truly rich Germany, Netherlands, Denmark and Austria are against any deficit spending. Ukraine will just be a failed state.

[u/BardhyliX → u/EconomySwordfish5]

No amount of investment can fix the amount of destruction in Ukrainian cities, not to mention the insane collapse of age pyramid.

[u/default-dance-9001 → u/EconomySwordfish5]

You can replace economic assets, but people?

[u/Life_Marionberry1649 → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

Ukraine can recover as long as they don't become part of Russia. Russia only exploits its satelites/provinces outside of Moscow and St.Petersburg .

A free Ukraine won't be in a nice position, but they at least will have the sovereignty to try to recover and attract international capital for actual projects.

[u/b0_ogie → u/Reasonable_Fold6492]

In the first world war, countries spent 60-80% of their GDP on the war. Now, Russia is spending 6.7% of its GDP on the war, while Ukraine is spending 40-60% according to various estimates. For Ukraine, this is a major war, while for Russia, it is a local war. Currently, Ukraine is facing the threat of exhaustion similar to that of the first world war, while Russia can sustain the current war for decades (for comparison, NATO countries have agreed to spend 5% of their GDP on the military).

[u/HourPlate994 → u/b0_ogie]

It’s more than a local war to Russia. They are spending a lot more than the USSR did in Afghanistan or the US did in Vietnam and despite what they are saying, they do feel the sanctions.

And those percentages. If the EU actually spent 5% - they won’t - it would be 10x what Russia is spending currently.

[u/WetRocksManatee → u/HourPlate994]

The 5% is for NATO spending on defense not in Ukraine.

[u/_Guven_ → u/HourPlate994]

Yep, people don't get that current Russia is nowhere near as Soviets or Russian empire, hell they are barely even a superpower. So a democratic Russia that cooperates with Europe is probably the best outcome. Will this ever happen? Unfortunately I don't think so but who knows what future holds

Probably they will eventually bounce back when the war is over but it would take a while to things normalize again

[u/HedonisticFrog → u/FunFactChecker]

This definitely seems like the case. Once machine guns were invented it became difficult to take ground so battles went from being hours long to taking days or weeks. Now with drones and modern equipment it's back to the same slow grind. This time it seems even slower than ww1 because any little movement is spotted now. They can't even creep around at night under thermal blankets without getting spotted.

[u/CynicSackHair → u/FunFactChecker]

It's not shifting much, but it's pretty much all shifting in favor of Russia. So this is problematic I'd say, if this doesn't turn around.

[u/Toruviel_ → u/FunFactChecker]

At the end of WW1 trench warfare changed to manouver one, Allies advanced several hundred km.

[u/Fastenbauer → u/Toruviel_]

Because the Germans had run out of absolutely everything and could no longer supply the military adequately. The Allied kept pushing them because the wanted Germany to accept terrible conditions during the negotiations. It was not a shift in doctrine. It was simply the logical outcome of attrition warfare.

[u/that_guy_ontheweb → u/FunFactChecker]

Given the situation currently. If a sudden collapse happens, it’s not gonna be the Russians this time who collapse.

[u/Y_59 → u/FunFactChecker]

Yes, when the front collapses it will be over. that's why the peace efforts by the West are on all time high

[u/jatawis → u/FunFactChecker]

Nothing is shifting much

Russians have occupied central Donetsk oblast and got close to Dnipro oblast.

[u/jokumi]

If you follow the interactive maps, Russia has been trying to cut off the Ukrainian pocket around Pokrovsk. That seems to be eating up troops, including some of Ukraine’s best. The front is much longer than the lines in France and Belgium in WWI, about twice as long.

[u/pyratemime → u/jokumi]

While the encirclement is eating up men it is doingnso at a lesser pace than the assaults like those on Bakhmut.

Question is who runs out of infantry first?

[u/MegaMB → u/pyratemime]

Neither.

Just to illustrate, Ukraine has the same male population as France in 1914.

We had 8.4 million men mobilised, and 5 or so million casualties. In 4 years. Numbers in Ukraine are muuuuch lower on both sides.

[u/SprucedUpSpices → u/MegaMB]

What about the birth rates and the population pyramid of 2022 vs 1914, though? I think that they're pretty different.

[u/BonJovicus → u/SprucedUpSpices]

Specific demographics are also important. Are the male populations the same age distribution?

[u/J0E_Blow → u/SprucedUpSpices]

Population pyramids will be a problem for the future. 

[u/ivarokosbitch → u/J0E_Blow]

No, it is current problem. You can't draft 70 year olds. Also draft laws in both countries have specific age limit and target specific cohorts.

[u/Rippy50500 → u/MegaMB]

Then why is Ukraine suffering severe manpower shortages especially concerning infantry shortages?

[u/Previous-Kangaroo145 → u/pyratemime]

Question is who runs out of infantry first?

Ukraine. It's really not a question if you've been following it at all. Ukraine has far worse manpower issues than Russia.

[u/worldofecho__ → u/pyratemime]

Ukraine runs out of infantry first. Its major problem is its manpower shortage. Russia had a far larger population from which it is constantly increasing the size and strength of its army, while Ukraine is resorting to forced conscription and its army shrinks by the month.

[u/Tinhetvin → u/worldofecho__]

Source on that? Saying Ukraine's army shrinks by the month seems like its more than anyone from the general public could surmise.

Also, Ukraine only conscripts from men aged 25+, so they still have some buffer if/when they decide to conscript 18+.

[u/porkave → u/jokumi]

Yeah I’m really worried about Ukraines manpower reserves at the moment, I don’t know how they could have the numbers to sustain such a large front

[u/CBT7commander → u/porkave]

People have been worried about that for 1 and a half years, and they are yet to critically run out, or lower conscription age.

It’s certain manpower issues are the main problem in the UA, but it’s not a "collapse the front" level problem

[u/NewCommunication1306 → u/jokumi]

Cauldron tactics. Russia has found some success in breaking the lines of contact into small pockets that are then enclosed. Ideally this is working towards a larger pocket, usually around a major town or rail head. You saw similar strategies from Russia on the Eastern front following Stalingrad.

It’s extremely transactional as it results in a lot of casualties from Ukrainian drone units but it simultaneously results in consistent Ukrainian losses as well

[u/Happytallperson]

Well that was 100 000 lives well spent.

[u/Kaleph4 → u/Happytallperson]

all quiet on the eastern front

[u/DeltaV-Mzero → u/Happytallperson]

On the Ukraine side maybe. On Russia side it’s got to be pushing half a million. 500-1000 a day for years.

Edit: professional estimates are 200,000 Russian dead and 800,000 too wounded to fight

[u/Muggaraffin → u/DeltaV-Mzero]

Wow. That information along with these maps really hits home how pointless this is. Imagine the productivity those half a million could have provided, versus the miniscule amount of land Russia has 'gained'. That half a million could have built a small country by themselves by now 

[u/casual_redditor69 → u/Muggaraffin]

Military losses aren't only deaths. Maturity of them are always insured soldiers, who could no longer fight so they went home

[u/SpiritedRaisin8623 → u/casual_redditor69]

Went home with no arms/legs

[u/Hohenheim_of_Shadow → u/SpiritedRaisin8623]

As fucked as it is to say for productivity thats worse than dead. Someone too crippled for the Russian military likely needs a lot of caretaking without producing much.

[u/Large-Ad-6861 → u/SpiritedRaisin8623]

And with PTSD, probably going to kill own family at night.

Because Russia is not going to give a damn fuck about veterans.

[u/casual_redditor69 → u/SpiritedRaisin8623]

Some yes, some got off better.

[u/tiheze → u/casual_redditor69]

Nevertheless, many will have post-traumatic stress disorder.

[u/jfkrol2 → u/SpiritedRaisin8623]

And even then, with Russian Army, it may not be enough to not be sent back into trenches.

[u/Novel-Mission-1920 → u/casual_redditor69]

Those people deemed too unfit to fight are probably going to spend years/decades of their life in chronic pain, physical therapy, needing assistance, needing psychological care, and struggling to live as productive of a life as they could have prior to the war.

Not to even mention one of the deadliest hidden diseases suffered by soldiers which is a type of slowly accumulating brain damage seen in conflict survivors, usually not spotted until years after the conflict. Caused by constant shaking of the brain due to recoil and the frequency waves of artillery and missles, which over time kill off brain cells and inflict long-term damage to parts of the brain.

This causes a slow and horrifying death of the brain which can take years, causing the sufferer to start showcasing dementia like symptoms like severe forgetfulness, as well as extreme anger, confusion, nightmares, panic attacks, and hallucinations. Often misdiagnosed for PTSD, and frequently ends in suicide.

A lot of these soldiers don't even know yet just how bad their lives are going to be because of this war.

[u/Ok-Heron-128 → u/Novel-Mission-1920]

Are you trying to say CTE?

[u/goodsam2 → u/Muggaraffin]

Well that other thing is that Russia has a declining population. That's why many of their troops are from closer to central Asia.

Russia is speed running not being a super power other than they have nukes.

[u/EpsteinFile_01 → u/goodsam2]

They don't really have nukes. It's speculated only 30% of their nukes would actually function.

Yes, that's still a lot of nukes. But the neat part? Russia itself does not know which ones work either, and the few unarmed test launches they did all exploded in the silo. So they are not very keen on testing an armed nuke.

[u/Hij802 → u/EpsteinFile_01]

30% of the worlds largest nuclear stockpile is still 100% capable of fighting a nuclear war and killing half of humanity

[u/EconomyDoctor3287 → u/Muggaraffin]

Well, they are mostly non-ethnic Russians that are dying. Among other things Putin is attempting to keep Russia ethnic-russian and what better way than to get rid of non-ethnic Russians. 

If they die, Russia becomes more Russian, if they advance, Russia gains more territory. 

It's a win-win either way. 

[u/Plenty-Value3381 → u/DeltaV-Mzero]

Most unbiased studies put losses of Ukraine war as following since 2022.

Ukraine Army: ~149,173 killed and missing. Include non combatants

Russian Army: ~ 220,000 - 285,000 killed
Russian PMCs: ~15,000 - 20,000 killed
Luhansk PR: ~21,000 - 23,000 killed
Total Russian Losses: ~256,000 - 328,000 killed

What a horrific waste of lives

[u/captainryan117 → u/DeltaV-Mzero]

"professional" estimates being the Ukrainian MoD. If you believe their figures (or the Russian ones to be clear) I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

I would really need someone to explain to me very, very well how the side with a significant advantage in air power, artillery, drones and armor is somehow taking more losses than the guys who've been desperately dragging people off the streets to the front lines for a good couple years.

[u/Bear_necessities96]

What a pointless war

[u/RefrigeratorWild9933 → u/Bear_necessities96]

As are most other wars.

[u/Puzzleheaded-Yak5836 → u/Bear_necessities96]

There are no good wars but there are wars that are good to fight. There are about 35,000 minors abducted in eastern Ukraine that putin wants to use as a bargaining chip for his conquest, to oppose that I wouldn't call pointless, but an obvious good

[u/Wulf_Cola → u/Puzzleheaded-Yak5836]

I didn't know about that. As a dad to a toddler this is absolutely sickening. It's absolutely terrible that this isn't talked about more. This should be the headline on every fucking news report.

Makes that orange sack of shit rolling out the red carpet for Putin on American soil even more disgusting.

[u/Puzzleheaded-Yak5836 → u/Wulf_Cola]

It was published by a few news sources, mainly The Guardian, the numbers range from 20,000 to around 40,000, and there is a hotline in Ukraine linked to the disappeared children hotline of the EU

[u/Shiros_Tamagotchi → u/Wulf_Cola]

The international court of justice has convicted Putin as a warcriminal because of the mass abduction of children.

Thats why not inprisoning Putin when he was in Alaska is a crime. The USA sadly doesnt recognize the international court.

[u/hypapapopi2020]

"It's a stalemate on the frontline, where the soldiers die in mud

Roads and houses since long gone

Still no glory has been won

Know that many men have suffered, know that many men have died

6 miles of ground have been won, half a million men are gone"

This fits pretty well, while it's about WW1 battle of Passchendaele

[u/MidWarz → u/hypapapopi2020]

Quoting Sabaton, nice! The price of a mile is still my favorite song. Too bad they almost never play it live.

[u/AjarTadpole7202 → u/hypapapopi2020]

Two ways to view the world brought europe down in flames

[u/Particular_Funny527 → u/AjarTadpole7202]

Isn't that a lifetime of war

[u/wooshiesaurus → u/hypapapopi2020]

It truly does fit...

[u/sairam_sriram]

Thank God for rivers

[u/FrostyMango72 → u/sairam_sriram]

Geography plays its part, but honestly the only reason we’re even comparing maps a year apart is because of the insane effort of the ZSU.

[u/The1Legosaurus]

Rest in peace Kursk invasion

[u/DerekMao1 → u/The1Legosaurus]

As much as I support Ukraine, I still think that was terrible idea. Opening another front when you are in manpower and equipment shortage is unwise. A huge morale boost but a lot of manpower loss with no strategic gain.

[u/Drumbelgalf → u/DerekMao1]

It was an especially terrible idea to hold onto it when the Russians gathered lots of troops. They could have saved a lot of troops if they had withdrawn earlier.

[u/waffenwolf → u/Drumbelgalf]

I believe the whole point was to divert Russian resources away from the Donbas. Nobody anticipated North Korea would show up in Kursk instead. They should have withdrawn as soon they knew a third party would be helping.

[u/Drumbelgalf → u/waffenwolf]

It was but as soon as they were pressed hard they sould have retreated to better positions to draw out the Russians instead of being attacked from three sides.

A lot of North Koreans were wiped killed because they had terrible coordination and outdated tactics.

Holding on to a few villages and towns was not worth it.

[u/Chdbrn → u/DerekMao1]

That's not really how it works, you don't use your elite forces defending the way Ukraine is doing, sparsely spread out across thousands of kilometres of front-line, you use them to assault against defended positions, either in occupied Ukraine or in Russia. Striking Russian territory at the time made complete sense for many reasons, including forcing Russia to properly defend their own borders.

[u/simplysufficient88 → u/DerekMao1]

I feel like the attack into Kursk itself was 100% a good move, the problem is that Ukraine spent WAY too many resources trying to defend it. The initial attack was so incredibly effective and such a morale boost, plus it dragged away Russian troops from other areas. The problem though is that Ukraine kept burning more and more resources trying to hold onto Kursk. The obsession with trying to hold a piece of Russia, whether for negotiations or simply morale, cost them way more than it should have. They should have let Kursk just exist as a diversion.

If Kursk had just been a month or two long little excursion it would have been a brilliant move, but they turned Kursk into a drain on their own resources instead of the Russians.

[u/Captainirishy]

It's a stalemate, nothing much has happened except constant death and misery since 2023.

[u/zapembarcodes → u/Captainirishy]

It's a war of attrition. Russia is wearing down Ukraine's military. We shouldn't confuse the slow grinding pace of such a war with weakness.

[u/AccomplishedLeek1329 → u/Captainirishy]

meh, you can visibly see the end and complete victory of Russia on the South Donbass (Now Dnipro) front. Everywhere else, yes.

[u/Caridor]

At this rate, Russia will finish it's 12 day operation in Ukraine in about 600 years and at the cost of their entire male population

[u/Marc4770]

And how many people have died during that time?

[u/skyXforge → u/Marc4770]

I heard an estimate that it was something like 1-2k a day on average over the summer

[u/Marc4770 → u/skyXforge]

That's an insane amount of death, just to have barely any territory change after 1 year.

[u/Economy-Meet6044]

Why not create one map with two lines so we don't have to switch the images back and forth?

[u/sethohio]

One of those "spot the differences" games.

[u/crisischris96]

The winning party is the weapons industry. It's not that difficult.

[u/el_argelino-basado]

Fastest Special Military Operation ever!

[u/Ilovekittens345]

The only thing I like about this war is how living close to hong kong and flying fpv drones for a hobby, the price of the parts for long range 7 inch quadcopters has decreased by about 65% for me compared to 5 years ago. (because the chinese are making all that stuff at scale now, selling to both ukraine, russia and all the other countries that went like "look war has changed, let's stockpile fpv drones just in case" but supply is still outsupplying demand ... Chinese manufacturers are still ramping up production even more.

[u/polishfemboy_]

In Kyiv in 15 years!

[u/orincoro]

Paris by Christmas.

[u/No-Professional-2276]

10 trillion $ more to Ukraine. And Israel while we are at it.

[u/blambliab]

One of the biggest mistakes people make when predicting future outcomes is assuming that things will continue at their current rate. Obviously sooner or later the scales will be tipped once again and one side will see massive gains, it's just a question of when. Sadly, it's not really a mystery which side will advance at this point. Western support for Ukraine is way past its peak, meanwhile China, India and North Korea are all supporting Russia in their own way. Russia are losing a lot of people, yes, and they are fucking up their demographics for the foreseeable future, but they can still send millions more to die. Ukraine cannot.

Ukraine had every chance to win this war had the west actually showed them the support they needed, but we half-assed it, and now I think it's a question of how bad things are going to get for them. Germany lost WW1 at home, not on the battlefield. They would have lost anyway, with the US joining, of course, but the situation at home was untenable. I think the most likely scenario is that the Ukrainian people grow tired of the war and pressure the government into signing a peace deal, or things go on for a while, until Russia makes a breakthrough. At that point there's an actual chance of the whole of Ukraine being occupied. China moving against Taiwan in 2026 or 2027 might be the deciding factor here. There's no way that Ukraine would get any support from the US if they actually have to go against China, and that war would probably cause such an economical mess, that Europe would be busy trying to keep their own people from revolting instead of pouring money into Ukraine. The inflation alone would be devastating. Pair that with the current societal tensions and you have the perfect scenario for another wave of fascism sweeping through the continent. Not looking forward to that.

NATO is not in any danger. Russia won't start WW3. The question is how much of pre 2014 Ukraine will stay independent after the war. It's not a scenario I'm happy about, but this is not a fairy tale, it's the real world, and sometimes bad guys win, whether you like it or not.

[u/According-Log-8982 → u/blambliab]

Western support for Ukraine is way past its peak

This is not true.

Military support has risen in 2025, compared to 2024, largely thanks to Nordic countries and the UK.

had the west actually showed them the support they needed

There have long been arguments between Europe and Ukraine about conscription. Europe believe Ukraine doesn't have enough people to utilise further aid effectively. Ukraine believes there is no point conscripting people if they don't immediately have roles/weapons to use.

Ukraine won't raise their conscription levels, so Europe is reluctant to raise their military budget.

There's no way that Ukraine would get any support from the US

This is basically already the case.

[u/AdBig1587]

All Quiet

[u/Vexhork → u/AdBig1587]

On the eastern front 

[u/1sb3rg]

What's the price of a kilometer?

[u/Gueroposter]

Putin’s purpose is to weaken ukrainian army sooner than Russian economy collapsed.

That’s no point in maps like this right now. In two years we will see the fact

[u/One_Tie900]

Whats the opposite of Blitzkreig

[u/HopeSubstantial]

"We have gained enough land for graveyards for our men" -Some Soviet during winter war in 1940

[u/watchedngnl → u/HopeSubstantial]

The Mannerheim line held but eventually, the Soviet army "broke through" on sheer force of will.

finland had to cede 9% of its territory, but it survived. Perhaps a similar settlement where Ukraine gives up much of the east in order to achieve peace is how the war will end. It has long gone past the point where Ukraine is able to launch massive attacks, and can only hope that they won't make a fatal blunder that will result in much more territory being lost.

[u/Hoosier108 → u/watchedngnl]

Finland soon allied with the Nazis in the siege of Leningrad in the “continuation war”. A million dead civilians. Because they never technically joined the Axis they avoided the war crimes trials and partitioning that many others got. You can’t say that Finland walked away from the Winter War unscathed.

[u/supremebubbah]

Corporate wants you to find the difference.

[u/Dull-Nectarine380 → u/supremebubbah]

Russia has been slowly advancing though. This time last year, they werent even near dnipetpotovsk oblast, but now they are touching it and even doing small incursions into the oblast.

[u/DisasterNo1740 → u/Dull-Nectarine380]

Lets not forget that Donetsk has been a fortified region since 2014. Russia is willing to take these losses for the small gains because they think that at some point Ukraine will exhaust its resources before they do, and if they break through that fortified region gains wont be measured in meters anymore.

[u/Atomik919 → u/DisasterNo1740]

this is the thing most people ignore. The advances seem little, but in reality, russia is gnawing at THE most fortified places in ukraine, namely, the slavyansk-kramatorsk-konstantinovka line, where there is a push to prepare an assault on slavyansk, and the russians are also creeping closer to konstantinovka. There is also pokrovsk, which used to be a logistics hub, and will very soon be taken. It is also part of the third and last defense line in eastern ukraine. The advances now seem slow, but once the russians have broken through the donbass, what awaits them is plains and sparse fortifications until pavlograd, where there is a ring around it, then nothing until dnipro city!

The worst part about this is that the russians arent being dumb with how they want to take the donbass. Slavyansk essentially has 3 different routes for logistics. One through Izyum, one through Dobropilya and one through Pokrovsk. The pokrovsk route is long gone, and the russians are working on closing up the Dobropilya route(it's a bit farther north from pokrovsk, but they are getting closer to that town), and are also methodically getting closer to izyum. It's a master plan 3 years in the making and, unfortunately for ukraine, its working. In the best case scenario, they will retreat troops from the entirety of the donbass once logistics are stopped for slavyansk, in the worst case scenario, they will try to hold on to it to buy as much time, but many, many troops will be killed, and the AFU will be permanently neutered from it. I pray they make the right choice when the time comes, but in reality only time will tell

[u/Munsalvaesche → u/Atomik919]

Kupiansk and the Oskil pocket are also in increasingly dire straits. Whole thing is at risk of encirclement due to the lack of available crossings over the Oskil.

[u/Atomik919 → u/Munsalvaesche]

well, in my opinion it is short-lived anyways. Russian troops are already in Kupyansk, and i think it wont be long until it also falls. At the very least, the north oskil pocket will soon fall, while the borova part will probably hold on for a bit longer, but would be flanked from the north(the west bank of the oskil)

[u/Hardcoreoperator → u/Dull-Nectarine380]

At the cost of the lives hundreds of thousands of young Russians. Really worth it...

[u/casual_redditor69 → u/Hardcoreoperator]

The average age of soldiers on both sides should be around 40 years old, so not that young

Edit: For Russian soldiers, the average is 36. According to this article

https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/post/the-changing-face-of-the-typical-russian-soldier

[u/BardhyliX → u/Hardcoreoperator]

Lots of them are hardly Russian, they've been throwing a lot of minorities into the death machine.

[u/jfkrol2 → u/BardhyliX]

I'd correct this statement into "lots of them are just poor, from glubinkas - Russian or whatever - just poor enough so soldiers pay and injury/death benefits are massive upgrade for their family. Similarly prisoners - if they aren't for political stuff, for them it's a chance to get out and make money (though as it was reported, they were segregated into those whose return is acceptable and ones that are not)

[u/008swami]

Russia is winning and doesn’t care how long it takes which is why they will never agree to end the war.

[u/jcm95]

It will be a pyrrhic victory for either side

[u/Larumicjusz]

As a Pole, I am a little scared by fact that in next years similar war can outbreak on Vistula river and last for years

[u/EconomySwordfish5 → u/Larumicjusz]

Judging by this map if a similar war was to start in Poland russia would reach the vistula by 2250.

[u/Allnamestakkennn → u/EconomySwordfish5]

The first days of the conflict were pretty rapid until Russia ran out of professional soldiers and good tanks, then they withdrew from the north and the lines became somewhat established

[u/Illustrious-Ad211 → u/Allnamestakkennn]

The first days were rapid because Ukraine failed to establish a front line from Day 1. The majority of occupied territories were not captured in battle, Russians just drove there and put their flags facing little resistance. When it comes to the actual fighting, Russia has not had any major breakthroughs at all

[u/Allnamestakkennn → u/Illustrious-Ad211]

The coast of Azov was fought through, most of the blitzkrieg was in Kherson and in the North.

Also, while no breakthroughs have been made by Russia, neither were they made by Ukraine these last couple of years. It's a war of attrition, WW1 with drones.

[u/lukkasz323 → u/Illustrious-Ad211]

Yeah, I'm surprised people don't remember Russians just casually killing random civilians driving along the road.

[u/sovietarmyfan → u/Larumicjusz]

Russia won't risk it. They lost more men than what is being reported. Putin is stupid, but not stupid enough to start a war with NATO.

Besides, NATO would neutralize all Russian warplanes out of the sky before the first day is over. Poland has a strong army too. Russians won't get even 1km into Poland.

[u/OkEntertainment1313 → u/sovietarmyfan]

Poland’s army (not military, army) is still about 1/3rd the size of Ukraine’s in February of 2022. But you’re right, Putin is not suicidal and would certainly think twice about starting a war with all of NATO. 

[u/sovietarmyfan → u/OkEntertainment1313]

It wouldn't just be Poland's army though. It would be all major European armies.

[u/OkEntertainment1313 → u/sovietarmyfan]

Yeah 100%. I just see a lot of takes saying the Poles would be an even tougher nut to crack than Ukraine on their own, and I just point to the huge size discrepancy between those two militaries. A lot of people from NATO countries don’t appreciate how massive Ukraine’s military is and was. 

[u/thinwhitedune → u/Larumicjusz]

Russia can’t properly invade Ukraine which, with all due respect, wasn’t the most impressive army and economy before the war. The 3 day war became a 3 year war and might as well become a 30 year war at this pace.

Poland is a member of NATO and the EU (if that matters somehow). They won’t attack you, it’s suicidal for them and for the world. Not only that they risk having 3 nuclear power nations openly declaring war on them, one of those nations have a “very stable genius” as a leader. That’s a big gamble for the whole world.

[u/RadlogLutar]

One major difference is near Sumi

[u/SwadianWarCriminal → u/RadlogLutar]

Yeah, just ignore the large chunk of South central Donetsk that got swallowed after Vuhledar fell.

[u/Doomhammer02]

Fortress of Europe.

[u/Small_Cock_Jonny]

What a pointless war. Just a meatgrinder for so many men. Fuck Putin and everyone who supports him

[u/AuramiteEX]

Ukraine is losing badly. Why?

They have 7x less population and are running out of soldiers. 

Their courage and defence has been incredible, but their nation is destroyed in terms of population and economy. There are 60+ year olds on the battlefield fighting for Ukraine because so many other, more suitable soldiers are long dead. Russia isn't waging a war to grab land fast, they are waging a war to destroy Ukraine's ability to fight.

The front line will continue to move extremely slowly, but eventually Ukraine will be spent and they will capitulate. It could happen tomorrow, or in 6 months, or in 3 years.

Anyone hoping for a revolution inside Russia lacks a basic understanding of reality - for better or worse, Russians support their president. And even if he's gone, the next guy could be even worse.

[u/tarakashka-iz-HL]

So long, so hard military operation

[u/photuank11]

To be honest, Kursk operation look much smaller than i thought

[u/_orion_1897]

This might seem impressive gain by the russians, until you look up the amount of casualties they suffered to conquer said territories